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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Watching 2/6 - 2/8

2/3. Cmc, euro, go south now. Euro completely misses. Cmc brushes. Ukmet pulled in and north. Dgex makes hard right at obx. But 0z, 6z and 12z nam and gfs are bringing precip up to mass border. HM and BS are looking for 4-8 around nyc. Nws has 30 percent chance.
2/2 - Models have trended north all day. Euro and now 18z GFS, DGEX and CAN have it parked off DE to S Jersey with snow reaching Albany except for DGEX which goes to LI. We are at the -8 isotherm, which is great for snow production and with .5 inches on the gfs, could be close to a foot. GFS Ens have it still going east of DE, but the spread is greatest to the north. UKMET still way out to see with a 984 low. Will the northerly trend continue? Usually does until 72 hrs.
Meanwhile, looking for an inch or so tomorrow morn.

2/1 - most models taking out to sea
0z Euro Th nite Elpaso, Fr nite Hilton Head, Sat nite 150 miles east of OBX - furthest north snow is DC
12z Euro fri morn NOLA, Sat morn, just off Delmarva with precip likely up to NYC, Upper low then jumps down over us and has some more light snow
0z CAN Fri morn OK and MS, Sat morn, 984 over Chesapeke, Sun morn 988 over benchmark - clocks us with snow. Should note that the GEM does not have the support of its ensemble members
0z Nogaps Fri morn Tampa, Sat morn double barrel KY and 50 miles off NC, Sun morn 988 just off delmarva with a weak low over west ny. Somehow this does not present a snow for us on its map??
0z GFS - 12z fri over talahassee, right along coast until OBX on Sat morn where goes offshore and spins through Sunday. Snow reaches DC
6 z - same as 0z but a little closer in on Sat morn, spins off coast moving slightly ne on sun. Brings snow into S Jersey
12z fri 12z double barrel over Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Just east of OBX on Sat 12z, spends all day there and moves along come SUnday morn. Snow just south of Cape May.
DGEX -6z - 12z fri main low over MS/AL. 12z Sat 984 over Delmarva. 12z Sun off NJ 100 miles. Creams us with snow, but only as far north as Mass border
UKMEt 0z fri nothing, 0z sat over GA,0z sun 200 miles east of delmarva, but kinda shows a second low right behind it over VA.
12z - off SC and out to sea
GFS ENS all show it going out to see, but with some snow making it into the area- 1-3 inches.

Heres the problem I see. Looking along the VA/NC border area, and most of VA, the conditions are right for all snow. However, the precip being printed out by the GFS is over 2 inches. So when was the last time you heard S VA, or NC, in the I-95 area, getting two feet of snow????

1/31 - 0z Euro had extreme situation on the table with lows coming up the coast with another diving down behind it dumbelling around, causing snow for days, and lots of it. The risk with that was rain along the coast. 12z is sending the first low out to sea, but still dumbelling the second one in. Either solution brings snow into our area
Canadian also shows us getting hit at the same time, but without the second one being very strong. First once clocks us -same for both runs.
GFS -6z parks a 988 low off demarva for sat and sunday. 12z shoots it out to sea off OBX after playing around with it. 18z brings snow as far north as s jersey. I like seeing the GFS further south, especially with energy diving down behind.
DGEX - 6z run right up 95 with a brief stall over nj. Brings heavy snow, ending as rain. 18z brings it up to Chesapeke, where it stalls and snow gets as far north as Philly.
UKMEt has it aimed for us in the 0z, but out to sea on the 12z.
JMA has it heading from Chesapeke to Cape Cod. With another storm following...
GFS Ens are not optimistic. Low gets to OBX and hooks right due east on all runs today. Top .1 of precip gets to CT/MA border, but dominant precip type has a big donut hole over CT. The only hope is that the higher spread area is to the north which indicates further north movement sooner.

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