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Sunday, January 10, 2010

19th storm

1-19 - got half inch of snow per dxr - was in vt where we got 5". only got .12 output too. Still way dry.

1-16 morning - ct right on snow line aloft , but temps above freezing per surface maps.
Ukmet still well north, all rain for ct. CMC well north, all rain. Euro brings snow line down towards the end of the storm.

1-15 12z runs - Euro now has 850 line over CT, before after and during. 540 line is still too far north
CMC - starts with the 850 line in Canada on Sunday, but collapses it on Monday down to MA/CT
UKMET - brings 850 line down to MA
GFS - brings 850 line down to CT (and is much faster)
NAM - brings 850 down to S. VT and is fast like GFS

Most interesting is that all the models, except the NAM, bring the low just south of LI, nw of the benchmark, which would normally result in a rain event at the shore and snow inland, sometimes way inland. So it may not be as strange of an event now that the low has shifted north. Nam has it going over CT.

1-15 - all models have temps at 850 well to our north, with US models trying to cool things for snow. With a low going to our south, in the coldest time of the year (ave high 35 here), and the temp the day before only 36, this should be snow. UKMET and CAN has 850 line in Canada, Euro in Northern New ENgland, 0z NAM drops it down over us, 0z GFS drops it just south of CT. 6z NAM makes it only South to MA. GFS has it splitting CT. Looks like rain to wet snow event.

1/13 - Euro still has it, although warm and weak. GFS has it in a major way now at 102 hrs. See pictures above of that. Should be rain to snow event, or all snow for much of CT. CAN still out to sea.

1/12 The GFS, UKMET and CAN all have storm going way south (18z gfs is closer though). Euro has it just making it north enough for CT, but ironically, rain, at least to start. Key is the trough coming behind it and the GFS kicking a low out ahead. Not sure why this is underlined. See still dry post for pic of output from storm, or lack thereof.

GFS ensembles, 18z operational, and jma have storm coming up the coast. Earlier runs out to sea, adjusting north. Will it go even further north? Precip output for this run was 1.25 over CT.

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