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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

March in and out as a lion?

3/24 - yes! the reverse jinx worked. NAO seems to want to go negative. Now before excitement builds, the forecasted NAO has been way below the actuals all year. Its actually remarkably bad, so any forecast for a neg NAO now is suspicious. But what it does is block the system to the lakes. The GFS and Euro have responded to this, albeit slightly for now. Instead of over Lake Michagan, the 0z euro has over Chicago, but then jumps eastward over CT. The 12z GFS has it completely east of the lakes now. So if we can get fridays storm to intensify a little more, drag down some colder air, we still have a shot on Sunday. Lets see if the eastward trend continues. BTW - CAN had a little storm with snow Mon-Tues - but that model has been completely overdone this year.

3/23 - this one goes to the lakes. One weak system on the 1st or 2nd may try to get into the cold air, but otherwise nothing impressive. GFS continues to try and establish a trough over us in the 7-14 day period, but as we are seeing, the trough only lasts a day or two then out and in with a new one. The Sunday storm looks like its trying to secondary, which would work for snow during winter, but not in spring. This could be the last post of the season.

3/17 Lets keep an eye out for the end of March. The GFS keeps trying to dump a trough in for the 20th to the 1st. But check out this picture from the 6z run this morning. Its for the 29th... 0z has it on the 28th and 12z has it too...

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