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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Early Dec

12-9  Cold air hung tight today with high of 33.6. Did not get above freezing til noon or so.  Result was lots of ice, 2hr delay.  Barely any snow again, with light snow overnight melted, then refroze when frz rain came.  no real accum

12-8 -The 12-4 snow was a bust, as back end snows usually are.  NWS Albany had Litchfield Hills in 4-8 inches  - they got a dusting.  Most models had PA in at 6 inches, they got two.  Our area got some tiny flakes, but never got below freezing.  Pretty big bust from the models - basically the moisture came and went before the midlevel cold got in place.  So based on the current qpf outputs, 1-2 is a likely scenario, changing to freezing rain. Also think most of the precip will have fallen in sub32 temps, so only little rain/drizzle for Monday.

For tonites event, the amount of qpf is only .15 to .3 depending on the model, with only .15 of it falling while temps are conducive for snow.  It really shouldn't be a big deal - WWA in place though with 1-2 inches possible, and likely.  Sometimes WAA events (aka front end) result in heavier thumps of snow, but thats usually resulting from stubborn cold air.  However, this time there just isn't enough moisture. 

12-4 - no changes.  Slightly less chance on back end fri-sat morn, although its forecasted by nws as a possibility.  Sun-Mon looks more definitive, 1-3 likely at this point, before changing to freezing rain and rain

12-3 - Morning run still have a possible back end snows as a wave comes up the frontal boundary on the 7th.  Possibly our first measurable snow - an inch.  Euro has more front end on the 9th - 3-6 inches, while the GFS has 1-3 inches.  Still need to watch for freezing rain on the ninth.  GFS also has back end snows on the 10th after frontal passage, which while it looks good on the maps, it usually doesn't pan out to more than snow showers.

12-2 - nothing happening until perhaps the 7th or 9th.  Marginal, low yield, precip after cold front on the 7th.  Front end, low yield snow on the 9th (watch for freezing rain that day)

11-30 - Morning run. Only Euro Ens have any precip hitting the area.  The rest all go offshore.  Inverted trough over the cape. NAM is out to 84 and is the closest.

No interesting weather in next two weeks per Euro ens and GFS.  The teleconnections from this morning are +NAO, +AO, -PNA.  This should result in warmer quicker patterns.

11-28
Morning run - GFS has inverted trough on the first - interesting.  Euro, JMA have a storm brushing the east coast, affecting mostly the cape and Maine on the 4th.  UKMET is stronger and stacked, negative along the coast on the 4th  GFS is ots on that one, by a lot. So there is some activity in the next 10 days, but nothing major (over 3 inches) at this point.

11-27
Models have been on and off over the last few days around the 3-5th range.

Currently, the Euro has a weak storm coming up the coast and intensifying once NE of us.  UKMET is similar, though the afternoon run is outside the BM.  CMC has shortwave coming through and deepening a bit too offshore for us.  GFS 0z run has a weak storm on the 2nd over us, with another stronger storm sliding off the southern coast on the 4th. 12z run has the first low a bit more offshore, the second one far out at sea.  Euro's output had 1-2 inches of snow. GFS has the same, despite the offshore development

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