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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Late November issues

11-27 - no updates needed since 11-24 as nothing changed. GFS capitulated on the  11-24 afternoon run.  Low came right over DXR at 994mb.  It was amoebalike in that it was consolidated, then stretched, a second low did form, briefly. The winds didn't amount to much at the house, although were in the 40's along the coast.  Temp peaked at 60 (62 at DXR) at 6am, fell throughout the day (40 as of 3pm).  Rain amounts were over 3.5" as of noon, but there was still a lot of rain coming through.  Radar showed w nj changing to snow.  GFS 1, Euro 1

Morning - Euro goes over or just to west of NYC.  CMC well west of the area.  Both would have 850 temps near 10C.  GFS is still out of sorts.  It still has a slow southern stream, almost cut off, though it drops the northern stream coming through now with snow.  Instead its now onto the storm coming up the coast, just offshore, but still holds back energy for a second low to go ots.    GFS Track looks possible now, brings snow per below, but with still little support, hard to go with it.  Lots of rain, 3-4 inches on euro.  NAM brings stretched low up the coast, consolidates

Morning - GFS 0z run goes OTS, but does leave behind some snow for us.  Euro puts a weaker system right over us resulting in rain, and a little snow.  Canadian puts 996 low right over us.   JMA runs right over us.  GFS 6z still way OTS with little if any precip. So its the Euro/CMC/JMA/GFS Ens/UKMET vs the GFS operational!  Looking like a mostly rain event with some snow mixed.  Possible 1" accums show on most maps.
Afternoon - no changes
GFS 6z snow
GFS 6z position

GFS 0z snow

Euro MSLP 0z

Euro snow 0z

Afternoon - GFS is out to sea (OTS).  No precip.  Not good.
GFS Ensembles bring classic noreaster.  Perhaps a bit too close to the coast.  Argues the operational may not be correct. 
Euro - looks like yesterday afternoon - stretched out along the coast, two waves. Mix of rain/snow.  The printout of 850 temps is quite warm though, mostly rain.
CMC - further west than before, actually goes to our west.

Attached Image

Morning - GFS, CMC, Euro and JMA all have storm on Wed.  0z/6z GFS currently the furthest EAST, brings a mix of rain and snow for NW NJ, Orange, Putnam, N Fairfield, Litchfield Cty - with most being the furthest N or W.  The amounts range from 3-9 inches.  GFS, I think because it deepens the storm later, is warmer aloft and at the surface, which is not common when its the furthest east.
Euro brings storm inside of benchmark which usually means rain for most of the area.  However, since it deepens the storm so much, it draws in the cold air aloft, keeps the surface near freezing, and puts out 6-9 inches for the areas mentioned above, with some changeover to all snow for most other areas, and accumulating an inch or two
CMC phases a little later, inside the benchmark, bringing cold air in at the end.
JMA phases over VT, its the furthest west, with mostly all rain for the area.
Precip ranges from 1.2 to 2 inches - well needed.
Too close to call - climatology says mix, mostly rain except for Catskills, Poconos, Berkshires.  But the situation is so borderline that shifts of 50 miles in the track or 5mb in strength make the difference between all snow and all rain for DXR.  I would be confident in having a lousy Wednesday though.
Below are the positions from the Euro, GFS and Canadian - typically the result from these positions is rain with snow far inland.  

Attached Image
Euro - GFS - CMC

Euro snow

Morning - Euro has storm, rather stretched out along coast. No snow. An inch to two inches, NW to SE of rain. Cold air after may turn lingering precip to snow. GFS has some light snow on Tuesday, but much colder Wed and shoves storm out to see off NC.
Afternoon - GFS ditches the snow on Tuesday, stretches out a storm on Wed - Thurs, but does so more at a 45 degree angle off NC/SC. So still OTS. Euro consolidates the storm a little more than on the 0z run, but takes it directly up the coast over us, with over 2 inches of needed rain. The difference between the 850 temps from the GFS to the Euro is about 20 degrees - they are really that far apart now. Euro has a little snow on the back end. Throw the CMC into the mix, which looks closer to the euro, but holds off the coast and brings in the cold air, which means a snowier solution, but less overall precip. 11-20
Afternoon - 12z models including CMC now go out to sea.  Euro has some snow from the clipper, but not much.  Printout for Euro didn't match the graphic - printout had .5 inches of liquid mostly above freezing.  Graphic had 3 inches of snow, tues nite into wed.  850 temps and thickness are a tad too high. Continue to monitor.

Morning - GFS loses the cutoff, moves to Euro solution.  There is a high chance of a noreaster, not too strong on these runs, on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, followed by a bust of cold air.  At this point, it does not look like the cold air in front of the storm will remain in place, so that the immediate tri state is mostly rain, but there could be front end and back end snow.  GFS even has snow on the ground.  EURO puts 1-3 down for the N&W subs, but plasters Upstate NY/VT with over 12 inches.

11-20 GFS 0z

11-20 Euro 0z

11-20 6z gfs snow


11-27 ish time frame, Euro onto a storm coming up the coast.  GFS has a cut off low over TX.  Euro is amplified, GFS is zonal over the northern CONUS. Wonder which one will be right
GFS 0z 11-19
EURO 0z 11-19

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