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Monday, November 4, 2013

Winter outlook

Slow fade into winter....  October ended a little above normal, but dry - only 6% of monthly precip.  November looks above normal, not dramatically.  My initial thoughts were our first snow around the 24th of November, with first snowfall over an inch in mid December.  Consensus of sources are showing warm to start, cold to end with near normal snowfall.  I wouldn't be surprised going with only an inch of snow until January, perhaps late January.   This is similar to  2011-2012 when aside from the late Oct storm, we only had 13" of snow from Nov-Mar.  Our first snowfall over an inch came in late Jan that year. 

Supporting no winter for now, is the strong positive AO, positive NAO and what is going to a strong negative PNA - this combination should bring mild weather, with a lack of big storms, although impulses may bring rain from time to time. 

Also favoring a storm pattern to the great lakes, putting us in warm sectors often, with quicker shots of cold after fronts.  Looking at a SE ridge that doesn't want to budge in the short term (through Nov and likely into DEC).   Some talk of a sudden stratopheric warming event is out there, which typically flips patterns, but I'm skeptical that it happens, and if it does, they are hinting at Dec, which may not be that cold to start anyway. 

I'm going with within .5 degrees of normal, probably warmer, dry, with under 30 inches of snow, mostly in late Jan/Feb/Mar.  Hope I'm wrong.

 There is no change indicated on the long range models. Actually, there is a tropical storm hitting us on the GFS on the 20th.  Euro ens control disagrees, although it does have a strong southerly flow bringing tropicalish air in.

1 comment:

SW CT WX said...

Yeah - this call not looking so good. NOV shaping up to have some quick major cold blasts. They don't last, but they also don't rebound with equal warmth as you would expect. Thus Nov so far is pretty well below normal,and like Oct, dry.

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