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Thursday, March 20, 2014

Reluctantly opening thread for 3-26

3-29 Finally get to update with the results.  SNJ/Delmarva and the Cape had about 6 inches. Blizzard conditions were reached on the Cape and the Islands.  A 103kt gust was recorded on a buoy off Maine. Nantucket saw gusts in the 80's, Cape in the 70's and most of the rest of the SNE area in the 50's.  CT saw mostly 40's including DXR. We had flurries. 

3-24  Despite runs showing inverted troughs, double barrel lows, westward shifts, the storm barely gives us any snow here in W CT.  E LI, E CT, E MA, and SNJ, Delmarva are still in this for a little bit, though  the cape still looks like it will be getting 8-14 inches.  As a final note, the high today was 31.8, normal high is 52.  We are -7.9 for the month with 19% of normal precip

3-23   Everything is east, Euro is only model still with any snow for the area and its 2-4 inches.  Eastern sections, Groton east, have over 6".  

3-22 evening. Not too much to update. 18z gfs is pretty far ots. 12zcmc and unmet have a solid snowstorm. 12z ecmwf is east of bm by 60-100 miles but spreads precip in.  I was expecting some sort of shift, either west or east by 150-200 miles as the systems involved reached north America.  There is still time for this to either shift completely ots or move toward the coast.  Storms coming up the coast usually trend west until 60 hrs or so, but this year is anything but usual.

3-22 morning.  Euro and GFS Operationals take the storm to 40/68, about 100 miles east of the benchmark, with CMC about 40/69, resulting in the coast and LI being hit with 4-8 inches, inland 2-4, cape cod about a foot. CMC and Euro stall storm for a 3-6 hours nearest the BM, before kicking east then NE.  UKMET is a little west at hr 96 but we only get 12hr frames, so hard to tell how close to BM. Ensembles are leaning west though, so we still need to keep an eye on this one.

CMC Ens - note spread

Euro ens, note spread

Euro snow map

gfs 0z ens - getting close

GFS 6z ens - getting close

GFS 0z precip

6z gfs precip, a bit further east

3-21 morning - only have html to work with. CMC has crazy two lows at 980, the westward one pounding us. That map is unlike any scenario I've seen in 10 years, so toss it. 0z Euro has similar multiple 980 lows, but further out to sea. they do consolidate into a 968 low at 66/42 though. Don't like that solution either. 0z gfs takes 972 low over 39/70 (normally this is a good position for snow early/late season), but limits precip as its tightly wound. Cape is rocked on that one. 6z run has a 984 low over 38/70, but 3 hrs later goes to 976. Both GFS brush the area and hit the outer cape pretty good. 0z ukmet bombs just east of the BM. DGEX still nada (be strange if that models wins).

3-20  We've been seeing some model runs on and off with a major storm for the 25-26th time frame.  I've been posting some crazy snow maps as a form of entertainment, having been burned on every storm since 2-18.  But its getting serious enough now to focus on the threat.  The Euro ens mean has a bm storm, as does the control.  NAVGEM has been on it for days, CMC has been on it most of the time.  GFS is pushing out to sea - this is a normal bias, but this year has not had any normality to it. JMA has the southern and northern separate still, not as potent.  DGEX too, southern goes out to sea, northern is weak.

Below is Euro ens mean, with spread partly due to differences in strength (some members are 940mb) but also position. Its a lot of spread.
The surface map from the operational - 968 low.

Precip map however, cuts off sharply, as usual this year. Most of CT is in the .25 to .5 precip range.  NJ is .5 to 1.5".  Parts of Delmarva up to 2" .  CC gets clobbered with 18"  of snow.  Precip pattern is weird considering the strength and location of low.

CMC from 12z, similar, odd precip, tightly wound
Ukmet right about at BM too...

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