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Monday, March 17, 2014

Crazy endings of this winter

3-29 Map from 0z NAM with snow in NJ/PHL (again)

3-28  Map from 12z NAM with snow for the 31st.  This is the only run today with snow in our area.

3-20  Morning - 3-26 storm is just offshore per Euro and brushes us.  Euro ens are a little west and spread is north at 144. NAVGEM has solid hit, CMC has it back over us too. GFS 6z is a bit west of 0z, brushes us as it goes just SE of 40/70. GFS Ens look good at 0z, east at 6z DGEX pops storm off OBX, but heads due east.  DGEX also has snow on Sun Nite.  

3-19  No crazy snow maps today.

 CMC 0z was a hit, 12z OTS, 0z Euro way out, 12z Euro brushes us, 0z-12z GFS went OTS, DGEX doesn't even have it. NAVGEM had a hit on both runs. JMA has one system way to the south, and a clipper coming through.  18z GFS does have snow for the NE, mostly in PA, with a spot in SEPA over a foot, but its not crazy enough to post.  Seems the models, except navgem and 18z gfs lost the energy in the northern branch.  Euro kinda gets it back, at 12z, just offshore, but affects PA/NJ of course. 12z Euro ens support the operational with some minor spread to the NW . 18z GFS ens show storm just east of 40/70 benchmark, with some spread to the N and NW.  Later frame the spread is more widespread, not the result of positioning but strength. NAEFS 0z is clearly out to sea, but with max spread over the N and NW while the 12z is closer, still east of BM. 

3-18 todays crazy snow map courtesy of the 6z gfs run  (0z had snow for us, but a reasonable amount).  Yes thats over a foot of snow in SC/NC.  Models are EVERYWHERE now.  Very inconsistent, all is possible.  

Not to be done by the 12z Euro operational - with 30 inches in NH/ME

3-17 We've had a lot of crazy storms that have missed Fairfield County recently.  Purpose of this post is to show some of the crazy model runs from today forward.  The time frame of around 3-26 is of interest today for the Euro and CMC.

CMC  0z 3-17

MSLP/Precip is all snow with 948 lp from ECMWF ens control  12z 3-16

ECMWf control snow map 12z 3-16

ECMWF operational snow map 12z 3-16

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