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Monday, October 22, 2012

Models go crazy - October surprise, again.

10/23 morning update. Some mets catching on last night.
Gfs ens starting to shift to euro solution. Euro, cmc, no gaps, jam still make us landfall.  Jam is south of no, while the others center around NYC to southern new England.  Gfs is further west, showing the storm meandering between Bermuda and the US. Pressure on this mornings runs are still close to 930 on the euro and cmc.  Winds and precip did not match the intensity of the 12z euro yesterday as a 930 low would have winds over 65.

These have to be overblown on the pressure. I can see how baroclinic factors affect Sandy and make it explode, but let's see how strong she is and how close to Florida she gets before making prep.


10/22
Just randomly checked the models this morning to find that the Euro had a huge storm affecting the midatlantic and southern new england.  Tropical Storm comes out of Cuba, stalls in bahamas for a day, then gets trapped by an upper low over the CONUS.  As the baroclinic forces hit the storm it drops to 952 low off of AC and moves into PA.  Track is supported by the JMA, CMC and partially by the UK models, although timing varies.  EURO Ensembles are conflicting, with some of the storm being split out to sea and some remaining to affect the US.  Its wind field and 500 heights are in line with the operational model, but the slp map is way different.  GFS has the trop storm going way out to sea, but the upper low spawning another coastal which affects New England.  Euro maps show hurricane strength winds hitting from NJ to CT.   This would be devastating to NJ in particular.  On top of that, the 850 temps are below 0 - but the leftover tropical airmass at the surface should prevent any snow until western pa.

Euro surface

Euro winds

Euro 850 temps

CMC

JMA surface

GFS 6z map

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