Irma

9-6  Monster continues, spares PR.  Eye seems affected, could be replacment. Could be interference from the islands.

0z nam run with it staying offshore

Barbuda and St Martin look pretty bad.  The storm just went north of St. John/St Thomas which was in the Southern eye wall.  BVI's took a direct hit. Bovoni had winds of 113mph before it failed.  It also received over 12" of rain in two hours, and it is only half through the eyewall.

 PR is the next stop, and it may end up in the southern eye wall too.

Models seem focused on either a FL/E FL or SC hit.  So narrowing down between Key West and Myrtle Beach.

Euro went to the east of FL in the 0z run, but is back ashore with a direct hit on MIA at hr 102.

0z euro winds

0z rain

Gusts at MIA 12z euro

Rain 12z euro

GFS 12z run

9-5
Evening - this is heading toward Barbuda, St Martin, Anguila

Still no consensus

Irma remains a cat 5 hurricane and began an eye wall replacement, which is speculative at this point in time by the NHC.   The 12z Euro took it over Cuba for over 24 hrs then regenerated across the straits and into Naples with a 938 pressure (the difference between the actual pressure between 12z and the euro was -32mb) which could mean a 906mb hit.  Gusts were in the 120-130kt range. And it moved right up Fl, off the coast and then hit GA.

12z CMC hits the panhandle. 18z GFS makes landfall at N Myrtle Beach.

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Early afternoon update
0z,6z, and 12z gfs placement

Meanwhile the CMC still goes into the gulf hitting W Fl

GFS ens mean

9- 4

Euro and GFS now both have it hitting Florida and heading north.  Maybe off the coast, maybe right up the middle.  Currently (8pm)  its at 140mph and heading west.  943 mb.

Some pictures...
Euro gusts at 150 and 156. Well over 150mph.

GFS gusts from the 18z run.  Again well over 150mph.  163mph on the keys. 

GFS Tracks have been nearly consistent, within reason at least, and are similar to euro. 

Then again, the UKIE had it much further south than where it ended up (black line actual)

HWRF 18z came north -was south of Cuba for the 6z run.

CMC hits Key west and starts north

12z Euro ensembles

Location: 16.9°N 59.1°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 926 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

 9-4 afternoon
Hwrf has it missing and cutting through cuba

Morning sat moving across 17

9-3  GFS trending towards Florida.  Still overblown, hopefully.

 Gif of the GFS landfalls

But the craziest of them all - HMON. 250mph at 5000 feet 189mph surface

 HWRF talking some sense to the HMON

Lastly the Europeans runs

9-2 GFS still nuts, latest Euro out to sea - is it a trend for the Euro or just a blip. GFS is just brutal.

12z GFS

0z GFS

6z GFS

Euro has been all over the place though with landfall.

 and the latest EPS run

 4 runs of hurricane tracks

GFS Ensembles

9-1
18z GFS went nuts.  These gusts are anywhere from 70kts along the NJ shore to 80-90kts over LI, 80kts over CT.

Something you don't want to see hit NYC

Precip not too bad though

In an interesting turn, the Euro pulled toward the GFS with storm up the coast (or perhaps out to sea)

0z GFS comes in near DC

6z comes hits Newfoundland

12z hits LI/RI

12z  CMC taking it up the coast

But there really isn't much we can predict with this other than it appears to be heading sw, but will pull ne of the Islands.


6z GFS Ens Mean

8/31 evening.  well this run is alarming

8/31  Irma went to 100mph at this 11am posting.  Euro is taking it to the islands.  GFS between CONUS and Bermuda, hitting Maine on the 12z, NC on the 6z and hooking left into Maine on the 0z

Here how close the winds are for the 12z gfs run

.Here's a look from this mornings satellite showing eye that quickly formed

12z euro

GEFS ensembles showing the difficulty of forecasting this far out

8/30

NHC initiated coverage on Irma this morning and went right to 50mph TS.   Satellite is a bit clunky until it gets into Goes East territory. Here's a look

GFS went absurd today 12z and 0z.  Below is the max depth and wind hr 240 by Bermuda from 18z and how close it gets to New England

12z had it bottoming out at 903mb as it went by Bermuda - real close call there.

12z Euro had it in the Bahamas at hr 240 but crawling NW

This is something to keep an eye on - right now the entire coast, TX to ME is at risk.  A trough is expected to reach FL but the timing is crucial. 

Harvey

8-31  Harvey radar loop from Tropical cyclone radar loops

8-30

Harvey 6 days later.  Finally downgraded to a remnant low, but not before dumping over 47" of rain on Beaumont/Port Arthur, 26 of which came in one day.  Some parts of Houston ended with over 50" of rain setting new records. See graphic from 8-29 for those totals.

8-29  Harvey 5 days later

8-24  At one a.m. the advisory was for 45mph with pressure of 1001.  4am 45mph and 995.  7am 60mph 986 mb.  10am 65mph 982mb.  12 cdt it became a hurricane with 80mph winds. 1pm it was 85mph with 979mb.  4pm 976mb.  7pm 974mb.   4pm disco had it maxing out at 125mph.  Just yesterday the question was would it achieve hurricane status.

 Models are still out there....some bring it inland, some leave it stalled on the coast.  30+" of rain is not out of the question in some areas.  Surge of 10 feet is expected.  Wave hights on surfline were 22ft onshore with 42ft swells offshore. Latest GFS has it sitting over TX from Friday until next Saturday afternoon.  12z Euro had it stalling on the coast, then tracking up the coast slowly and intensifying as it hit Port Arthur/Sabine Pass.

first landfall 12z saturday 8-26

Then back out

And up to the pass

Meanwhile the NAM brings it further down South Texas.

meanwhile, recon is coming in with 970mb as I type.  An eye seems to want to say hi.

CMC seems lost with pressure 14mb higher than now. And further south

than the nam

NAM precip totals - 35" was the highest I could find

18z GFS totals - 25"was the highest

Euro totals.  Galveston at 29.36" other areas over 30"

8-23  Harvey began east of Barbados, went through the islands, fell apart, went through the Yucatan and now is gaining organization.  Currently a tropical depression until higher winds are found.  Visible sat looks like its there organizationally.

Yesterday's GFS runs had a remarkable 40+" rainfall with 20+ on the Euro for SE TX.  Euro still is at 24" for Galveston, GFS has backed off into the 20s as well, with Houston getting 15".  Today Euro is down to 18" and GFS at 15" for GLS.  

NAM forecast Gif

Harvey, 5 days later...