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Saturday, October 17, 2009

Rain or snow or both?

GFS has temps at 850 mb under freezing until a little past midnite, precip starting this evening and lasting through late evening sunday. NAM has danbury mostly below freezing at 850mb with the line on us late afternoon sunday, at which point most of the precip will be winding down. Candian model also has similar to the NAM with the r/s line moving as far west and north as Danbury but again late in the day on Sunday. UKMET has the line as far north as just above I84 in CT but with less precip. Euro has only 24 hr time frames, but keeps the line well se of the entire forecast area.

So, Euro and Ukmet have less precip and colder, Nam and Canadian have more precip and are cold and GFS has it warming in the 850 layer. 4 models with mostly frozen precip aloft and one liquid. GFS places low much further west. All have thicknesses above 540, indicating surface temps remain above freezing.

So there is serious chance of snow, but not likely to accumulate except in the hills, and only small amounts and it will melt fast. I hope...

Radar at 10am Saturday shows heavy precip over N NJ heading our way. Dewpoint around 26 and temp of 43

Winter weather is so much more interesting!

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