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Saturday, December 12, 2009

12-19 Clipper or Southern Branch

12-18 - midday. GFS finally putting snow down .25-.5 as the storm tracks just off NJ. CAN goes nuts as does wrf which has .5-.75, but the 2in line is at LI. Seems way too tight of a precip gradient and these normally shift north. Plus ratios will be higher in CT. UKMet is furthest east and is weakest. The weaker the storm, the further east. GFS Ensemble has it at the benchmark at 984. How many storms fail to produce when at the benchmark with cold air around? Just in -the HRW - with no precip further north than DE.
AW forecast for Danbury is 3-6. 4 on the weather alert. With HM calling 1-3
NWS winter storm watch of 10am says 5-10 possible
DR Mel - 4-10 with highest east ct and near shore
AW having major issues with connectivity

some pix from the morning

12-16 Euro a bit further east, but still affects us,
GFS 18z run brings right off shore with .25 to .5 inches output
CAN brings one storm out to sea, but reforms another closer to shore. That part looks like the clipper actually.
UKMET brings up to hatteras then out to sea, no effect.
JAP goes a little further east but still hits us.
Nogaps goes up to Hatteras and out to sea, no effect. Has trailing clipper system hitting on Tuesday.
NWS has 30% chance of snow on Saturday
AW has nothing

12-15 UKmet - 0z run way out to sea, 12 z run a little further north but still way out
Euro - 0z right off NJ. 12 z SC to cape cod
CAN - va capes to li. 12 z - hilton head due NE out to sea
NGaps - 0z in near nj. 12z moved east but still hits
GFS - Hangs off the coast too far. 12z moves further north but then out NE.
JAP - a little further east than yesterday, but still hits hard.
NWS - only mentioned chance of energy coming through in discussion
AW - nothing
TWC - chance of snow showers.

12- 14 - Euro onto southern stream storm phasing with northern sw, but on 12/20. GFS still out to sea. DGEX has clipper and it snows for 42 hours. Nogaps onto clipper diving in and reforming off the coast, as is the CAN for the 19th. UKMet only has southern stream and keeps well south. NWS has chance of snow on Sunday. AW has nothing.

12-13 - I see nothing anywhere

12-12 GFS and UKMET and Dgex have small clipper with 2-4 inches coming through on 12-19. Euro has no clipper but a storm over GA. Can has storm starting in TX panhandle at 144.

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