Feb 8-9

Feb 7th

Models vary from a foot on the GFS to 40+ on the NAM.  All have sub 980 low tracking near bm, some inside, some over.  Looking at 18", possibly over by a lot.  But after 18" doesn't really matter.

Latest GFS printout

FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -0.5    -5.3    1022      93      87    0.01     554     536    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB   1.3    -2.9    1014      93      99    0.12     551     539    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -1.2    -3.2    1007      94      99    0.33     544     538    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -6.7    -7.1    1009      96      98    0.40     536     529    
SAT 12Z 09-FEB  -5.3    -8.3    1012      92      94    0.22     535     525 

1.08 tot

Latest NAM 

THU  7P 07-FEB  -2.7    -7.7    1031      55      87             556     532    
FRI  1A 08-FEB  -3.7    -7.3    1029      83      89    0.00     555     533    
FRI  7A 08-FEB  -1.9    -2.6    1023      94      86    0.01     554     536    
FRI  1P 08-FEB  -0.6    -1.2    1016      95      94    0.17     552     539    
FRI  7P 08-FEB  -1.9    -2.0    1004      95      98    0.71     545     541    
SAT  1A 09-FEB  -5.8    -8.1     999      93      99    1.22     534     535    
SAT  7A 09-FEB  -8.1   -10.4    1003      90      92    0.60     530     528    
SAT  1P 09-FEB  -6.8   -11.7    1010      80      80    0.05     535     527

2.76 total

12z Euro

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -6.7    -9.4    1032      56      79    0.00     554     529    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -0.6    -9.0    1031      38      89    0.00     555     530    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.9    -8.0    1031      59      88    0.00     556     532    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.8    -8.3    1029      73      86    0.00     555     532    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.3    -5.6    1024      81      97    0.01     554     535    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -0.7    -2.4    1017      88      98    0.12     552     538    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -0.9    -3.3    1009      89     100    0.53     546     539    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -3.6    -9.2    1004      83      98    0.80     538     534    
SAT 12Z 09-FEB  -6.1    -6.3    1009      80     100    0.87     534     527    
SAT 18Z 09-FEB  -4.1    -6.5    1013      59      88    0.11     538     528     

2.44 total 

 Feb 6th

Danbury
GFS = 1.09 QPF with temps between -1.0 and + 0.2 at 850 for the bulk of precip. 4-8 inches of snow.
Euro = 2.2 QPF with max 850 temp at -3C. 18-24 inches of snow.
NAM = qpf .56 with 850 temps ranging from +.8 to -8.6 with surface temps below 0c the entire event.   3-6 inches of snow

Oddly, Groton's GFS 850 temps are lower the whole time.  Here are the snow maps - note NAM actually has over 70 inches for parts of SE Mass and RI.

Nam has trended towards phasing the system, but does it later than GFS and Euro.  GFS is moving in the direction of the Euro.  So there still can be movement of the heavier precip west (or east, I prefer west based on current trends).  The catch is does that mean more rain.

For places south of Rt 80, this is mostly a rain event, with some change to snow at the end (as it currently stands)

Feb 5th
12z GFS caves to Euro idea of phasing a northern stream system and southern stream system in our area on Friday into Saturday.  There is no blocking so the storm won't last very long, but the Euro is concerning.  It shows a 972mb low over the benchmark, which usually results in a blizzard for the areas NW of NYC, and potentially NYC and LI too.  Euro qpf for danbury is currently 1.53 with temps below 0 at 850 for the duration.  Boston, however, gets clobbered with over 3" of liquid precip and temps just at 0 or below for the duration. Translation - 3 feet.