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Saturday, August 15, 2009

Boring summer... until today!

8/17 update

The late 8/16 and early 8/17 model runs went well east of Bermuda, but the 12z goes over and 18z today goes west. 0z euro went east, now the 12z goes west right between ccod and bermuda. CMC 0z is right where the 12z euro is, but the 12z grazes ccod. 0z ukmet still in bahamas, but 12z run takes it right up 70W. So the models are coming together and its close. They are having issues with a tiny trough coming off NJ/NE. GFDL has it reaching about 69W while the HRWF has it reaching 70W. Hwrf has it maxing at 120-130kts, cat four, GFDL also reaches that but drops off quickly. Hwrf remains cat 3 till end of forecast

Aside from a few more thunderstorms, the regular pattern of rain and sogginess has defined this summer. Even the recent heatwave of August 10-11 did not reach 90. I don't remember if we have gone a summer without hitting 90, but will be checking the records come mid Sept.

Always look south for spicy food and weather, in the summer at least. Ana and Bill have formed with Ana looking to be a minor ts, maybe reaching cat 1 strength as it tracks over the northern carribean. Models are split as to whether it goes north or south of DR and Cuba as it ends up in the gulf.

Bill looks to be more of a threat to Florida and north with the current model forecast having it reach winds of 110 knots, or 125 mph. Hurricane models only go out 120, but the Euro has it heading to newfoundland (and doesn't even recognize Ana) and the Canadian has it going just off of NJ and New England, perhaps phasing with a shortwave, and never making landfall until Nova Scotia. The Canadian does recognize Ana and has it hitting between Mobile and NOLA. JMA has Ana hitting NOLA and Bill beelining to New England on a rare path out of the Southeast, almost reaching the shortwave on the Euro. Above is the GFS interpretation.

10:30 update - GFS runs today start at 0z with Bill hitting S. Fl, moving into Gulf and hitting Pensacola. All other runs take it to the Bahamas before recurving. Euro 12z takes it from the SE just off the tip of Cape Cod. UKMET and Canadian still on the southern track into gulf..

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