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Wednesday, January 18, 2012

1-21

1-19 All models, including the NAM which was holding out, have snow for Saturday. There is still some talk of mix, perhaps based on ground temps, but the 850 line has trended closer to Trenton. Precip output is somewhere in the .35 to .55 range, so a 3-6 inch forecast is wise.

afternoon update: storm heading further south. 850 line pushes closer to Philly, precip amounts for DXR down. Now a 2-4 inch storm. Only factor which may keep snow amounts a bit higher, is that the -8 isobar will be in the area during part of the "storm"

1-17 A little snow thurs nite, first snow storm of the "season" for Sat

Models have shown on and off a storm around the 21st. I should have paid more attention. Overall its a pretty fast mover and not all that potent.
0z Euro puts out .58 precip, all snow for Saturday, leading to about 6 inches of snow
0z has .5-.75 precip, all snow for dxr
6z gfs has .42 precip, all snow.
CMC shows borderline snow/rain with line along i-80, but moves it north later in the storm. Likely all snow for areas north of i-80
DGEX is much warmer, all rain
JMA seems to move it off south of the area with minimal effect.
12z Euro cut back precip to .45, still snow
12z gfs is down to .42, still snow.
18z gfs is now warming up at 850 and changing to rain, still some snow to start.
All NAM runs are rain with low going over us or to the north.

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