2-25 - GFS moving towards Euro. Euro 0z and 12z runs have all snow for CT north, although the 540 thickness is on the mass border. 850 temps are below 0 to the sound, as are 925 mb temps. Heavier precip and lift will bring down snow, like the wet snow in Oct and yesterday.
GFS at 18z has moved towards the same solution - inching closer and closer each run. Key is the high pressure nosing down from Quebec. Both have really two storms, one on wed , one thurs. Even GFS puts out a few inches in CT now for the Thursday part.
However, in checking the teleconnections, postitive AO, positive NAO and negative PNA should be a blow torch pattern. Hmmm...
2-23 Tale of two runs of the GFS. Here are some pics from the 0z and 6z runs of the gfs for the 1st event and the one on the 2-3rd. Top two are 0z, bottom 6z. dgex snow map is also below. 12z gfs looks like the 0z. Interesting, the Euro ensembles look to put a 980 low over Hartford on the 4th, which would result in a blizzard in n. new england, but rain here. It further bombs to 970 off Maine. 0z Euro operational is a weak 994 low over Ontario. 0z CMC pushes the low through the lakes on the 1st, but does hit VT/NH with some good snow.
OK - this winter is beginning to get real sad. The ajuga has flowers on it!
Euro and JMA have what could be a big storm (over 6") for March 1st. Euro even has the 850 low just to our SE. 12z GFS is in the lakes with it, but brings one up from the SE on the 3-4th. DGEX has a storm on the 28th bringing marginal snow, but suppresses the one on the 1st in the SE. 0z gfs also supresses it, but has a minor event on the 28th.