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Saturday, June 9, 2012

Piling into the Gulf, W Carrib

6/21 Hurricane Chris -as noted there was a storm formed off the east coast, which looked like a baroclinic storm which went tropical. Its appearance is clearly tropical, but its odd since it formed north of 40N and in water temps barely over 70. Most of its life the temps are 20 to 24c (68-75F) per the NHC SST. Must have been more too it than just tropical

Shear is relaxing a bit, but only in the Yucatan Channel, which is where the next storm is trying to form. So a little late from the call of the 19th, but same idea.

Euro still has minor hints at somthing forming around Mexico, but more interestingly takes the baroclinic storm and converts to one with more tropical features of the East coast.

0z and 6z gfs less bullish on the EC storm, but has a Trop storm forming in Bay of campeche and moving to the Rio Grande.

12z gfs has lp escaping from central carrib out east, with minor development. Euro keeps trying to form but either sends west into Mex or shreds it coming north. 0z gfs has a bunch forming, first into B of Campeche, really short on development on the 16th. Competing is one in the central carrib, which like 12 z is lifted ne. Another off the Yucatan on the 21, but looks like it gets sheared ne into US.

afternoon: Accuweather on top of this as well now. Although the storm this weekend off the east coast looks more baroclinic than tropical.

Watch the 15-19th as the pattern in the carrib shifts to piling up moisture into the Gulf. A front coming along could spin up a storm, or one can form just with the amount of energy pouring in.

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