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Friday, August 3, 2012

New month, new storms

Per last post, Ernesto broke the shear and dry air, but struggles even today. But it looks the best it has all day right now. It should continue fairly week for another day or two. Models bring it to life once past Jamaica. I'm not thinking it hits the US as of now, but we'll see how the ridge holds out.

Then two more areas pop up - one near the Cape Verde islands, which is huge and strong. Long range models grab it then destroy it. One model taking it to the NE of the islands and recurving. Others devolve it into a wave. Right now there is an area of 20+kt sheer on its north side, displacing the divergence aloft. If it can shake that, there is a lot of energy to work with, moreso as it heads toward warmer water.

An area off Florida is where remnants of a tropical wave from last week and an old front have converged. Need to watch this interesting feature. Tstorms are plenty, its just whether they can spin up. The NAM does spin it into a low eventually and brings it into N Florida. Euro keeps it a wave. Its near an area of 20-30kt shear, but there a slot of no shear developing.

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