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Friday, November 9, 2012

November 20th giver or take a day

11/15 - Yesterday, Euro moved this out to sea, way out to sea, as did GFS.  They have consistently been doing so for about 36 hrs, so coverage will drop on this one.

11/11   Very strange GFS 12z run.  LP starts developing on Monday, 19th,  off NC, meanders around between NC and Bermuda until Friday, when another LP forms off NJ and heads east Sat and Sun.  Puts some snow down in Catskills, N NJ.  

Euro Op keeps things out at sea, the ensb control has a 998 low over Sandy Hook on wed nite.  CMC brings low north from  east of FL on the 18th to Canada on the 20th, brushing coastal sects with a little snow perhaps.

Still looks like something will happen between the 20th and 23rd

Morning   GFS still has storm on 20th.  50-60mph winds for CT, but too warm for snow, as of now.  GFS storms typically are placed too far east until day 3-4 so this may come back much closer.

11/10  - Still on the board but timing and temps make or break.

18z gfs snow

18z gfs sfc


11-9   Watching a very interesting and disturbing possibility for the third week of November.  Why is it titled give or take a day?  Euro ensemble control has a subtropical storm forming in the Bahamas going up the coast.  Precip moves in 7am on th 18th. It pulls out 1am on the 21st.  With a big high moving out over the Atlantic and an old front lingering, this scenario makes sense.  The blocking and slowing of the storm also makes sense with a 1040 high just north of Maine.  So its not a long shot, but previous runs had cut off lows rolling through the country.  850 temps support snow -and a lot of it!  0z GFS has the storm forming as well, but much further east - but has a clipper come in under that big high on the 21st.

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