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Saturday, November 8, 2014

16th to 18th

11-16 - perhaps a bit premature, but all signs are that the low will travel to our west bringing mostly rain.  NWS has a WWA in effect overnight, but thats light precip in marginal air temps, so not expecting any problems. 

Model winner, oddly is the JMA.  Euro had an inland track on the 8th, but waffled until the 12th when it locked in an inland track.  JMA had inland on the 10th.  11-14 0z gfs still had us getting some snow with a track off shore.

Euro is a little colder, still not developing much in the way of a solid LP.  850 line on Mon 18z has shifted from MA/VT border to MA/CT border.  850 line is further south and east on the maps below as well.  But there is no snow on the map other than the 1" that fell last night (in model land at least, only a dusting on the ground). However, Catskills, Upper hudson valley, Berkshires, most of VT/NH get into a 6" possibility.

0z euro to compare with 12z below

0z GFS is still further east, bringing a mixed bag into CT.  Start as snow, to rain, to snow based on 850 temps. The printout has .5" qpf frozen, .38" liquid, but with boundary temps barely above freezing throughout. Its snow axis is closer to us and we get 3-6".

 6z gfs pushes the 850 line back to where the 0z euro is, with the snow map being essentially the same.
Other models:  UKMET is to our west. CMC forms low off delmarva and moves NE of benchmark. Its 850 line is just to our west through most of the event. RGEM close in shows that low goes from ACY to ACK at 996.  Snow line just to our NWDGEX looks different from the others - it takes one batch of precip through on monday, associated with a GL low passing to our north.  Then another storm spawns off the coast on Tuesday which goes out to sea and misses us. NAVGEM is close at 84

So with a weak storm moving inside the BM, marginal temps and November, its going to be difficult to pull this off as a snowstorm with over 1".  We just need to wait  and see if the storm will deepen more (draw in the colder air waiting off to the west) or if the track shifts east.  

12z Euro still slow to push boundary in our direction.  12z GFS has boundary to our east.

GFS hour 108

Euro digs a little more at 500mb, and keeps some energy back over the SW.  GFS sends that energy around the bottom of the trough which I believe pulls the trough further east.   See circled purple areas - the energy circled on the euro is the energy circled on the gfs.  The area over LA-GA on the euro is further off the GFS.

0z euro doesn't even have a formal lp on the map, just a wave coming through.  It sets up a boundary just to our west, which may be close enough to have some snow. Euro ens control has 1-2".   0z gfs looks the same, but 6z pushes boundary east of us, bringing a few inches of snow.  CMC doesn't really have any precip, its boundary is further off the coast.  DGEX at least still has a LP and also like CMC/6z gfs has the boundary off the coast. the 0z and 6z high res GFS both have LPs forming off NC going to the BM. NWS calling for snow now Sunday night.

11/12 12z euro still running inland, looks like its later too, using the kicker it had in earlier runs to really amp the flow and slow down the lp as it goes unorganized to our west.  12z GFS is back just to our east, mix rain/snow.  See difference between them.  Euro known for leaving energy behind, GFS for stringing out front.  GFS shows 1-3 inches here in Danbury.

Euro hr 132

gfs 132

morning summary.  0z Euro and UKMET are  running inland now.  GFS 0z has 6-8" and 6z is out to sea with some light amts.  CMC closer to GFS, NAVGEM right over us.

11/11 afternoon
12z Euro weaker, strung out, warmer

12z euro
12z GFS is showing accum snow, colder
12z GFS
18z gfs looks more out to sea
Afternoon summary - Euro inland, GFS further east, Dgex still running right up coast, rain turning to snow with 1"

Both models seem to weaken the GL Low, but the Euro sends the tuesday kicker straight out to sea off SC.  GFS never had this feature.  Both now try to develop LP off the NJ coast, late enough and in the right spot for snow to the west of Hartford. Euro only gives 1-2", but you can see how with this frame and the printout
Euro mslp 850
MON 06Z 17-NOV   2.9     0.0    1011      97     100    0.31     553     544    
MON 12Z 17-NOV   2.2    -2.4    1008      94      43    0.12     546     540 
0z GFS has the LP coming from the gulf and is a little better organized, though still stretched 1008 off shore. Then consolidates to a 996 off NJ to over BM.
0z GFS 850/mslp

0z GFS snow

 6z Similar to 18z, mostly rain in CT/NJ/Hudson Valley/MA, but nice snows Upstate NY, VT and all but the easternmost parts of PA. Remarkable amount of snow cover to our west.

11/10 afternoon
12z Euro goes out to sea.  Still significant difference between GFS and Euro.  12z JMA runs it to our west. 18z Dgex runs it right up the coast over us. Oddly, it has a LP coming up from the east coast of FL.

11/10 morning
0z Euro tracks nicely - some snow on Friday, GOM moisture streams into TX on Sat nite, unorganized the moisture tracks east over LA, MS, AL, GA. Another shortwave dives down into TX on Sun nite/mon morn, forcing the unorg moisture up the coast (still no LP on map) bringing light snow/rain Monday.  Meanwhile the trailing sw forms a more potent low (996) over GA mon night, spreading snow into the area mon night becoming heavy tues morn with 850 line south of I95. 992 low brushes Cape Cod - its fast moving sparing us more than 6". 
6z GFS is a little messier, with no real snow on Friday, just poss snow showers.  Looks like a gulf low 1016 tries to form at 12z sunday, that transfers to the coast off SC/GA as a 1016 low, spreading light snow into the area sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile a 1012 low over the lakes has little precip, but a lot of influence.  It deepens to 1008 pulling the moisture off the coast north and consolidating with a sw over western NC.  This pulls warmer air into our area and the coastal low goes inland over NC, reforms just off AC goes North into Long Island as a 1004mb low overnight sunday. Result, rain.

CMC is a GFS/Euro compromise, never forming a strong coastal, but placing the moisture similar to Euro and keeping it cold to snow.

0z Euro tracks this one right to our SE, with a slight chance of snow turning to rain. Timing is late Sunday/early Monday. 0z is similar with timing and placement, though has a more stretched out look. 6z pushes further offshore with a period of light snow Sunday night. CMC tracks low right over us, with early snow turning over late Sunday/early Monday.

DGEX forms low off SC on Sunday, up to OBX, then, off Cape May 0z Monday, to ACK as a 1000 mb low. So more of a snow storm, but to our east. 
So GFS goes inland rain.  CMC emphasizes the inland low, but keeps cold and moisture east enough to snow. Euro runs a near perfect track.  DGEX also has near perfect track, but weaker and less moisture resulting in a sharp cutoff just to our west. 

In addition to the slight chance of minimal snow on the14th, GFS and Euro are showing signs of a coastal storm around the 17th.  Below is the printout from the 12z GFS showing a nice 6" storm - problem is its daytime.  Notice the cold that follows.

FRI 12Z 14-NOV   0.0    -9.6     127     SN    0.00    0.00    
FRI 18Z 14-NOV   1.9    -9.6     128     SN    0.01    0.00    
SAT 00Z 15-NOV  -0.6    -9.4     128     SN    0.00    0.00    
SAT 06Z 15-NOV  -2.2    -9.8     127           0.00    0.00    
SAT 12Z 15-NOV  -2.6    -9.9     127           0.00    0.00    
SAT 18Z 15-NOV   3.4    -9.6     128           0.00    0.00    
SUN 00Z 16-NOV  -0.6    -8.3     128           0.00    0.00    
SUN 06Z 16-NOV  -1.7    -7.8     128           0.00    0.00    
SUN 12Z 16-NOV  -0.9    -7.6     128           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 17-NOV   1.2    -5.9     129           0.00    0.02    
MON 12Z 17-NOV   2.4    -0.5     130     SN    0.39    0.08    
TUE 00Z 18-NOV   2.3    -1.4     130     SN    0.35    0.30    
TUE 12Z 18-NOV  -4.9   -11.4     126     SN    0.04    0.32    
WED 00Z 19-NOV  -4.1   -11.4     126     SN    0.01    0.32    
WED 12Z 19-NOV  -5.9   -12.3     126     SN    0.01    0.32    
THU 00Z 20-NOV  -3.4   -11.7     127           0.01    0.30    
THU 12Z 20-NOV  -5.7   -12.1     126           0.01    0.30    
FRI 00Z 21-NOV  -2.4    -9.6     127     SN    0.01    0.29    
FRI 12Z 21-NOV  -4.3    -7.1     127           0.01    0.29    
SAT 00Z 22-NOV  -3.9    -6.4     127           0.00    0.28    
SAT 12Z 22-NOV  -5.9    -7.4     127           0.00    0.29 
But then there is the 18z which has 2-4 - 850's much colder but the storm is offshore
SUN 18Z 16-NOV   3.4    -7.7     129     SN    0.03    0.03    
MON 06Z 17-NOV  -1.1    -9.3     128     SN    0.21    0.11    
MON 18Z 17-NOV   0.1    -5.3     128           0.00    0.11    
TUE 06Z 18-NOV  -1.2    -7.7     128           0.00    0.09  
And the 12z Euro which takes it inland, with snow turning to rain - note 18 degree spread for Monday 6z between 12z euro and 18z gfs
SUN 18Z 16-NOV   3.6    -4.9     130           0.04            
MON 00Z 17-NOV   5.1     2.2     132           0.31            
MON 06Z 17-NOV   7.5     9.2     135           0.15 
Lastly the 0z Euro, still close enough to shore to turn to rain
SUN 12Z 16-NOV  -0.7    -6.3     128            0.00            
SUN 18Z 16-NOV   3.1    -5.6     129            0.00            
MON 00Z 17-NOV   3.0    -4.1     130            0.04            
MON 06Z 17-NOV   7.0     5.0     134            0.48     

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