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Friday, January 2, 2015

First two weeks of January


1-11 evening - NAM, Euro, GFS are all saying it warms before the precip arrives.   My issue with that is we now have broken clouds, the temps are falling and dew points are in the single digits.  Any precip which arrives should cool the column.  HRRR and RAP are showing a delay in the warming at 850mb layer and at the surface.  This may allow for some precip to start as snow, before changing to freezing rain.  NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory in effect, calling for snow, to sleet and freezing rain with .1 to .25 ice accretion.  Timing is morning rush.  They must be looking at the RAP and HRRR.  Only thing to do now is to watch the radar and the thermometer. It didn't get above freezing today, so we've been below for six days now. Surfaces are indeed frozen. 

1-10 afternoon - Euro trending warmer, still a close call. GFS goes warm, like NAM. Precip looks light though.  Will need to watch for icy conditions as ground temps usually lag models unless there is a strong wind.
1-10  GFS and Euro hold with their colder, snowier solution, but the temps are really close. NAM surprises with a jump in temps so that it is mostly rain, which is an unusual move for the normally reliable (temp wise short term) NAM and cause the NAM is usually colder and wetter than other models. With no cold air damming in place due to southerly winds, I can buy the NAM solution. 

1-9  The clipper on the 6th dusted the ground.  The clipper on the 9th came through looking like a frontal system on the radar, with a band of heavy snow for an hour or so.  Now to watch for the wave coming through on the 12th/13th.  Euro has a couple of inches on the snow map with temps borderline and .4 qpf. GFS is colder but drier with .1-.2 qpf over the area.

   00Z JAN09
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
MON 00Z 12-JAN  -2.2    -1.8    1034      53      90    0.00     566     539    
MON 06Z 12-JAN  -1.3    -3.0    1032      57      97    0.00     565     540    
MON 12Z 12-JAN  -1.6    -2.6    1029      67      97    0.02     564     541    
MON 18Z 12-JAN  -0.1     0.0    1025      74      99    0.03     562     543    
TUE 00Z 13-JAN  -0.2    -0.5    1022      96     100    0.22     560     543    
TUE 06Z 13-JAN  -0.9    -6.2    1024      83      71    0.13     555     537    


1-5  Below is printout from Euro - cold and dry.  GFS is similar.



ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN05
                           2 M     SFC     SFC     850     700    6 HR     500    1000
                           TMP     DEW     PRS     TMP     RHU     QPF     HGT     
                             (F)     (F)    (MB)     (F)    (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON 12Z 05-JAN  37.0    20.6    1014    15.7      19             543     532   
MON 18Z 05-JAN  31.1     7.6    1020     6.0       8    0.00     532     517   
TUE 00Z 06-JAN  24.4     0.4    1027     1.7      13    0.00     534     514   
TUE 06Z 06-JAN  21.2    -7.1    1028    -2.0      10    0.00     540     518   
TUE 12Z 06-JAN  20.2    -5.6    1028     0.6      46    0.00     537     516   
TUE 18Z 06-JAN  23.9     5.7    1022     0.7      94    0.02     529     512   
WED 00Z 07-JAN  23.1    11.8    1018     5.0      76    0.01     527     513   
WED 06Z 07-JAN  20.3    10.9    1014     3.5      37    0.00     525     514   
WED 12Z 07-JAN  20.1     5.5    1011     2.9      94    0.00     517     509   
WED 18Z 07-JAN  25.1    -2.7    1009     1.8      97    0.01     509     503   
THU 00Z 08-JAN  11.1    -8.6    1018   -11.5      49    0.00     509     495   
THU 06Z 08-JAN   5.0   -12.5    1024   -14.0      32    0.00     512     495   
THU 12Z 08-JAN   6.9   -11.5    1027    -9.9      55    0.00     520     500   
THU 18Z 08-JAN  20.8    -3.2    1026    -2.7      25    0.00     531     511   
FRI 00Z 09-JAN  19.3     1.0    1024    14.1      38    0.00     537     519   
FRI 06Z 09-JAN  21.0     1.4    1020    15.5      52    0.00     538     522   
FRI 12Z 09-JAN  25.0     9.1    1014    13.3     100    0.01     535     524   
FRI 18Z 09-JAN  32.9     4.9    1012     9.6      11    0.01     530     520   
SAT 00Z 10-JAN  25.1     5.9    1017     7.3       9    0.00     531     518   
SAT 06Z 10-JAN  19.4     2.4    1020     2.3      11    0.00     530     514   
SAT 12Z 10-JAN  17.3     0.1    1025     0.8      24    0.00     529     510   
SAT 18Z 10-JAN  23.7    -2.1    1028     3.3      25    0.00     533     512   
SUN 00Z 11-JAN  18.7    -1.3    1031     8.5      25    0.00     544     519   
SUN 06Z 11-JAN  17.1    -2.8    1034    14.1      13    0.00     552     526   
SUN 12Z 11-JAN  18.9    -2.7    1035    17.0      34    0.00     556     529   
SUN 18Z 11-JAN  32.8     7.6    1033    20.4      88    0.00     558     532   
MON 00Z 12-JAN  27.8    13.7    1033    24.0      96    0.00     561     535   
MON 06Z 12-JAN  28.5    11.8    1032    22.0      97    0.00     560     535   
MON 12Z 12-JAN  28.5     9.8    1032    20.0      98    0.00     560     535   
MON 18Z 12-JAN  30.9    12.9    1030    19.5      99    0.01     559     535   
TUE 00Z 13-JAN  28.0    18.7    1031    17.9      97    0.03     558     534   
TUE 06Z 13-JAN  26.7    17.8    1030    14.2      82    0.04     555     532   
TUE 12Z 13-JAN  19.1     8.8    1032    14.5      62    0.00     553     528   
TUE 18Z 13-JAN  26.6     1.8    1031    15.4      35    0.00     550     526   
WED 00Z 14-JAN  19.3     0.6    1032    15.5       9    0.00     549     525   
WED 06Z 14-JAN  15.2    -0.6    1031    18.7      34    0.00     551     527   
WED 12Z 14-JAN  13.9    -0.9    1031    21.8      25    0.00     552     528   
WED 18Z 14-JAN  28.7     2.2    1029    24.4      30    0.00     554     532   
THU 00Z 15-JAN  23.4     6.3    1028    26.7      35    0.00     556     534   
THU 06Z 15-JAN  18.9     6.3    1028    27.4      32    0.00     555     533   
THU 12Z 15-JAN  17.2     6.0    1026    27.4      37    0.00     553     533   



1-4  Nothing changed - still cold, mostly dry.  Coldest temps with a shot subzero F on Wed night/Thurs morn.   Nothing more than light snow from clippers, Tues and Friday.  Sunday perhaps too.  Nothing but light snow showing on models, with little accumulation.  Snow ratios will be  high, perhaps 20:1 or 30:1.  Pattern remains suppressed, with temps going from colder to normal to colder.  Below is the precip map, for all the precip to fall for the next ten days:  for DXR and Hudson Valley, less than .2"  Not a whole lot
 going on except the southeast, northwest and some lake effect.  Not a very impressive El Nino pattern!
goin on

1-3. Nothing changed from below.  Strength of clipper on 7th to be watched.  Still cold till the 12 th.

Highs on the Euro for the 4th!  60's in NJ, 55-60 in CT, MA. NAM is in the 40's for CT, but spots of 60-65 in NJ. RAP is also toned down in the 45-50 for CT.

 

1-2. Colder than normal air to come in (finally) after the storm passes on the 4th. Nothing brutal, but from the 5th to the 10th or so we will be below freezing most of the time. Temps around the 8th-11th may be in the single digits as lows, teens as highs.  A clipper comes through on the 7th with a dusting-2".  Only hope is post the 16th when it looks like the NAO and AO will go negative and the PNA will be positive.

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