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Thursday, January 8, 2015

1-15 Why meteorology is difficult

1-10 afternoon  All models out to sea.

1-10  0z Euro goes out to sea, 6z GFS has nearly a direct hit, inside the benchmark though.  So far the most accurate model is the UKMEt and its a little early, but it looks like its out to sea as well.




1-9 afternoon  12z Euro bales again, GFS stays out to sea.
Euro 12z

GFS 12z


1-9  morning 12z Euro yesterday baled on the notion of a storm, but its back today. CMC is meh on it. JMA looks like the GFS, but a day behind and bigger.  DGEX still looks like yesterdays GFS with the storm going off SC and out to sea  So Euro is the only hit, so far...but the other models seem to be catching on. .

Euro

GFS
Euro snow  12" accumulated   3" from 1-12 though
Take the Euro snow map with a grain of salt though as the temps aloft and at surface are really close to 0c, so lesser snow ratios would come into play.


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1-8  So it looks like we will be ending our dry/cold period around the 15th.  Or will we. Three models, all at hr 192 (7pm on the 15th aka 0z) all with different scenarios. GFS just pushes everything south, which makes some sense as we are in that pattern now.  CMC also says suppression, but has a northern stream system come through on 15th, which phases (or nearly phases) over Nova Scotia.  Euro keeps precip to our south through the 14th, but then takes some energy from the SW, merges some moisture from the Gulf, forms a LP over SC and brings it up into our area (W CT gets 12+, south and east much less). I'm usually suspicious on how the Euro handles energy over the SW, but the error I've heard is that it hangs back energy, which in this case, its the only one ejecting the energy.  We'll see which model blinks.

Canadian CMC

Euro

US GFS



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