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Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Quiet last two weeks of January? maybe not!



1-24 - result 6.5" fell by 7:30, then it just flurried on and off.  Not a bad call.  

1-23 evening

These borderline situations kill me.  Here are temp profiles over time for NAM and GFS.  GFS continues to be the warmest model.  You can see the 0c bubble on the GFS for maybe a 3hr period in the 925-850mb layer, then its below 0, then above at 1000mb (which is basically surface when the pressure is under 1000mb).  NAM below it doesnt have that bubble, though does warm slightly at the lower levels. I continue to believe that 4-6 inches will have fallen by the time we hit the GFS bubble, even on the GFS. NAM, Euro and CMC are all just at or under 0c .  NAM increased precip at least



Euro skew t for the warmest time shows temps aloft mostly at or below 0c (0c is the blue line running to the "northeast" from the 0 at the bottom of the chart, temps and dew points are the white lines).

Sorry no sexy snow maps  - Euro for some reason still going with 3-6 inches, gfs is terrible.  NAM and SREF plumes are >6"  At least NAM and Euro increased precip.

nam precip .75-1
Euro  .75-1 qpf
Sticking with 6+ 



1-23 - The 26th storm is headed south, for now, with minor snow here if any.

Here is my rant from the weather boards on Accuweather from this morning.  Pretty much sums it up.

Maybe its the path/trajectory of the storm or the speed, but with a gulf system coming up the coast and hitting 40/70 (its called the benchmark for a reason), it really bugs me that the US models are so low on qpf for mby. 6zGFS is at .35, 6zNAM .41, Euro .59 (and its inside the BM), NWS has .64, and the JMA and CMC say .75 to 1. Now I don't complain much, nor forecast much, but there's something missing here. I get the thermal issues and how it may mix and cut the snow amounts, but just can't buy under .5"qpf. And the CMC and Euro are slightly closer with the storm but have colder 850s. I mean come on - the NAM routinely spouts out ridiculous precip amts from southern stream storms and on this one, this winter, its one of the lowest? I say 6+ I84 corridor east of the Hudson, including freezing rain that will follow after the main slug of moisture arrives, and .75-1 qpf.

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1-22 afternoon
Rumblings about the 26th and 27th still bear watching.  GFS deepens a clipper as it comes through PA and hits coast.  Thermal profile is great for snow, and it snows from hr 90 (2am on Monday) to hr 120 (7am Tuesday). Total precip for DXR is .79 qpf during that time frame, but its mostly light, averaging .021 per hour.   Still, it could be another 8 inches!

For the 24th Euro backs down amount, stays cold for snow in most of Tristate.  GFS says otherwise, though 12z GFS is now at the Benchmark and drops 20mb to 980 in 12 hrs.  GFS has a 3hr time frame where most of tristate goes above 0 at 925 and 850.  Euro goes to 976 off the Cape.  Brings right inside BM.  Ironically, even though Euro is still further west, its colder than GFS, and GFS further east is wetter (here).   850 temps to compare at time of warmest, and precip:
Euro temps at 850

GFS temps at 850
Euro precip

GFS precip
Both models, as well as the CMC, UKMET still have a 4-8" storm in store for Saturday.  NAM is oddly drier (it tends to overdo precip), and has similar 850/925 temps to the Euro. Takes it over the BM too, but doesn't deepen like the GFS/Euro.  Only goes to 992mb or so.
Nam precip

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1-21 Afternoon

Printout for Euro shows a foot in Danbury but its close
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 12Z 24-JAN  -2.3    -3.1    1010      78      99    0.00     548     540   
SAT 18Z 24-JAN  -0.6    -0.2     998      90     100    0.24     542     543   
SUN 00Z 25-JAN  -0.1    -2.0     986      84      99    0.72     528     540   
SUN 06Z 25-JAN  -0.8    -5.9     991      78      33    0.12     527     535   


850 temps




1-21 morning - not a lot of precip still for tonites clipper.  Sat/Sun storm taking shape - Euro still has .44 qpf, trending well.  NAM looks great with .5.  CMC is on board.   GFS/navgem/Ukmet are offshore.  Below are scenes from the CMC, Euro and NAM.  Euro 850's are a little cooler than the NAM, but fairly close, showing LI, SNJ, PHL getting rain for a bit.  Should be all snow north/west of NYC.  NAM stops at hr 84, so total accum is underdone by 6hrs. Lastly is the GFS precip map. 

Rumblings of another storm for next mon/tues on the UKMET, Euro, CMC and DGEX - looks to be a clipper that actually gets blocked as it passes and deepens right off the coast.  Varying degrees of intensity, but all models except GFS have it around hr 144.

CMC

Euro precip

Euro 850 temp

NAM hr 84

Nam Precip
GFS precip
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1-20  Still looking at coating to inch or two with the clipper on the 21/22nd.  Euro and GFS have started a trend back west for the system on the 24/25th.   12z Euro puts .3 qpf for a 3-5 inch storm (maybe less due to warmer temps).  GFS has .1 qpf.   UKMET is out to sea, CMC passes east of the benchmark, JMA passes to our southeast too.  DGEX brushes us like the GFS.  Need to watch any further trending west which may result in warmer temps
Euro

GFS

850s on Euro -don't want further n or w



1-19  No changes. Clipper for the 22nd needs watching, but for now is light snow.  Euro control does have a coastal just out to sea on the 25, otherwise its wait until Feb. Euro operational model has it east of the 40/70 with light precip.  Nothing else.  12z GFS has a clipper on the 30th, nothing else. 0z run had nothing.  GFS is supressing any storms, which is something to watch.   CMC has a disorganized system bringing light snow on the 27th/28th.   Temps will range from slightly above normal to 5-10 below normal throughout the last two weeks of Jan, averaging below normal for the month.

1-17  No changes, except timing is earlier, as usual.  Mostly rain on the 18th into the 19th.  Maybe some snow on the back end.  Precip really amped up now on this one with 1.5 to 2" qpf.  Too bad its not going to work out.  Clipper is running south of us on the UKMET, but is moisture starved per CMC and GFS, Euro has .2qpf though.   So we could get an inch or two this week.  Pattern remains cold and dry for most of the time on both long range gfs and euro control.  Storms form out to sea, but need to be watched for trending west. 

1-14  The storm on the 19th is showing up reliably now, but seems to be too warm for much more than an inch or two.  Euro actually has it going over us, for rain. GFS is inside the benchmark, but too warm to start.  UKMET doesnt even have a coastal, instead focuses on the northern clipper (gfs and euro have this too, but it misses us, so I skip mentioning it.)  What it looks like is a storm forming along the front - the Euro holds the front back, so it rains. The GFS brings the front through with some rain, but develops the lp just to our south in time to throw back some snow. CMC and DGEX form the storm well after the front passes. 

1-13  No weather events yet. Seasonable temps, cold now to start, warming, then cold and warm.  Nothing record breaking or interesting.   While no storms are on any models today, there are some lurking off shore on the 19th, 23rd and 27th on the GFS.  Nothing but some light snow from a clipper on the Euro.
12z gfs total precip through 1-29
0z Euro total precip through 1-23

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