3-18 Afternoon - GFS is now onboard
3-18 Euro still onboard with 3" of snow for the Danbury area. QPF is .46 but looking at .39 for the 10:1 ratio time frame. Temps do support snow. No holes in any layer, just a matter of where the precip goes now.
|Euro snow 3-18 0z run|
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.38 LON = -73.46
2 M 850 6 HR
TMP TMP QPF
(C) (C) (IN)
FRI 12Z 20-MAR -6.2 -4.7 0.00
FRI 18Z 20-MAR -1.1 -7.3 0.05
SAT 00Z 21-MAR -2.2 -3.5 0.30
SAT 06Z 21-MAR -2.2 -1.9 0.09
SAT 12Z 21-MAR -1.9 -4.5 0.02
GFS still at .1 qpf, for an inch of snow, but temps support snow as well. 0z and 6z NAM is also further south with QPF, but 12z may see some changes.
3-17 Euro continues on a 3-4" snow for the morning of the 21st for NYC/LI north. 850s well below 0 with surface temps at or below 0, so snow is supported. .52 liquid qpf is currently forecast - snow ratio likely under 10:1, but it may be close. 1000-500 thickness in the 535 range, also supporting all snow.
2 M 850 6 HR TMP TMP QPF (C) (C) (IN)
FRI 18Z 20-MAR 0.2 -6.9 .12 SAT 00Z 21-MAR -0.4 -2.9 .34 SAT 06Z 21-MAR -0.8 -4.6 06 SAT 12Z 21-MAR -1.7 -2.8 0.00
Early NAM looks south - complete miss.
JMA from 12z yesterday has a nice deepening storm off New England 12z 3-21 after spreading .5 qpf.
3-16 First weekend of spring.... snow/rain.
Friday night into Saturday, Euro calls for 2-4 inches throughout Tristate. This is coming from a southern storm, fairly weak, sliding to our south that will pull some cold air down and change from rain to snow.
850s and 925s support snow on this one, really most of the time.
|12z euro mslp|
|12z euro snow map|
|3-25 warm front action|
|12z GFS snow 6" for tristate|