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Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Halloween - always interesting.

10/27 - No major issues, but some wind and rain heading in Wed nite.
Here are the gusts from this mornings Euro.  Rain amts 1.-2". 2-2.5 on gfs.  GFS has gusts over 40mph for Interior sections, higher along the coast. Same with NAM. 

10/25  Euro and GFS show Pat redeveloping and hitting LA.  The GFS takes the moisture further east into our area for a soaking rain on Wed Nite.  Euro takes the bulk of the rain to our east.  The GFS shows a trough and snow in our area on the 30th (snow shower type, mood snow) while Euro doesn't.  Both have nice Halloween day.

 Euro shows frontal passage (fropa) on the 25th.  Then we need to watch what happens with the remnants of Patricia.  Some indication that some of the precip will make it up here on Thursday.  Euro has the remnants reform into a LP along the TX/LA coast and linger.  Then by Wed/Thurs get swept into a front. Interestingly, it also has a little noreaster developing as an upper low (UL) comes around.
Canadian looks similar to Euro, but brings LP further west. Spares us storminess, still good rain though.
0z Gfs doesn't develop the remnants as much, keeps the low onshore, and brings it up on Wednesday, again to our west, over Chicago.  It has a noreaster hitting us on the 3rd as a system again emerges from the gulf.


This mornings Euro was more benign - just a front coming through on the 29th and a brief cool shot.   Should be noted that TX area gets 6-12 inches of rain.
This afternoons Euro was more interesting - tropical storm hitting the TX/LA coast and moving north to the Lakes, with an upper low sliding in under it and the whole mess pushing through the NE on the 29th/30th.

The 0z GFS had the front come through dry on the 29th, but left the Gulf open for some development.  Tropical moisture streams northward on the 30-31-1 period, but nothing too organized.
12z run has nothing of note - normal frontal passages, nothing tropical.

0z CMC runs a deep low over the lakes, up to our west.  So does the 12z which results in chilly Halloween.

10/20  Since 2011, I've been keeping an eye on the last week or two of Oct for some interesting weather.  Low and behold, the models now go out to Halloween and there is some interesting features. 

Todays 0z GFS run has a hybrid tropical system heading up the coast and hitting us on the 30th.  Lot of rain, not too much wind.
The Euro has us setting up for a cold blast, deep trough.  It doesn't take much for that to close off  or go more negative and the storm/moisture offshore to come back in.  Need to watch this.
Case in point, the Euro ensemble control, which forms a noreaster, brings it back, but doesn't close off all the way and it gets pushed back out before hitting us.

FWIW - Canadian has a LP running from the Gulf up the OH valley, over us.  At the same time cold air presses down.  Should be serious snow in Northern NY,VT, NH with back end elsewhere. Bottom right box is the 0c line at 850mb (5,000 feet approx.)
So no consensus for now -but some interesting items to watch for the end of the month.

12z update Euro closes off low, but timing is a bit later and further west.  Still heavy rain, then upper low would go through with some snow.  GFS has a weaker miller A type storm forming over the SE and moving up the coast. 12z CMC has a storm moving up the Apps, with bombing out over us to 987mb and snow in the ADKs, Green and White mts.

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