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Friday, December 30, 2016

Jan 6-9

1-8  We ended up with 6.5" wiped, just outside the range.  The western extent was a bit back from I95 but the overall idea was correct. VA Beach and Raleigh had rain/sleet which kept their numbers down, but overall a fairly accurate forecast relative to what was publicized. 

1-7 Most models overnight stayed to course.  NAM decreased a bit on the 6z run but bumped back up at 12z.  Euro had .31 up from .23 at 12z.  GFS had .19 up from its  12z forecast of .06.   NAM 40k has .4 for OXC which should be 6".
Should note that Raleigh and VA Beach busted due to mixing.

Here is the nam 4k with 10:1 ratios.  We should be in the 15 or 17:1 ratios though.
HRRR is showing a westward juicier trend though
Here is the 10am sounding from the NAM -huge snow growth zone


 1-6 - First wave surprised with 2" of snow here.
Saturday's storm still isn't resolved.  Euro shifted west with the precip at 0z
12z 1-5

0z 1-6
NAM after shifting west all day yesterday,

 went east at 6z.
Heck one run of the 3knam was bezonkers yesterday.
RGEM and CMC continued west overnight, with the RGEM losing some precip in the first wave on its 6z run.
SREF plume yesterday  for Oxford was 3 at 3z, 4 at 9z, 5.5 at 15z and 9 at 21z.  These are totals between the two waves with an inch falling on the first.  The 3z today  was 8" and 9z was down to 4".
GFS remains the only model showing no snow for Northern Fairfield County.
12z GFS shifts west
12z CMC shifts west

12z GFS ens now bring precip into area as well

12z Euro further west

I like 0-3 inches north or west of I95 from DC to Bridgeport, 3 inches closer to 95. 3-6 inches I95 to the coast in NJ, LI, SE CT. 6-10 RI, SE Mass/CCod, Delmarva (maybe 3 further NW in DE). 8-12 Raleigh back to Greensboro and Charlotte, as well as most of VA west of Richmond and east of 81. 8-12 and maybe some higher amts in the Tidewater. NAM trended east today after pushing west yesterday and unloading up to a foot here. GFS, which gave my area nada for all its runs, now is giving 2-3". Euro, CMC and UKIE trended west today. Almost all in alignment. If they hold like this through tonite, my guess here should be about right. But we all know these can still shift east again.

18z GFS even further west.

1-5 NAM comes to bat
GFS ignores it for our area - the only precip is from tonites flurry.

1-4 - Euro still more nw
12z 1-3
0z 1-4

EPS showing nice trend
 GFS is stubborn, but minutely improving

1-3  Early morning - still two wave system along front.
Euro took good move northwest
 Ukie came in with both waves hitting benchmark
 Closer look at UKMEts second wave off VA/NC


1-2  Not going to over think this one.  Just going to look at precip map trends - Euro 0z and 12z
Euro 0z

Euro 12z
 GFS 0z and 12z.  We are going the wrong way.

GFS 0z

GFS 12z
The 0z run would have looked like this, but more likely higher ratios up by CT

Instead the 12z is astonishing
A closer look via Pivotal Weather  - 41" in the bright orange on the VA/NC border

Some scenes from todays models....Euro continues its message of a front stalling to our south and some waves moving up.  But seems to no longer hold that energy back.  Result is a couple inches of snow.

GFS..I'm not really sure what to think.  Coastal nearby to start
 Then nothing
 Back to coastal slider
 Then a clipper
 Then a clipper and coastal secondary
 and throw a subtropical storm or two on top of it.
The GFS Para 6z Run has a clipper coming through on the 8th and the 0z run has a clipper on the 10th.
CMC has two coastals brushing us on the 6th and 7th, then what looks to be a cutter on the 12th.
UKMET has nothing.
12-30  As noted in the 12-29 post, there is a front stalling with some waves moving along.  12z runs of the GFS and Euro both had storms but evolving differently.  GFS had a two wave strung out storm on Jan 6. 

Euro holds back energy in the SW and concentrates it into the second wave.

CMC demonstrates the two waves the best.

So its something to watch.  I don't see a huge press from the north to make this go out to sea, at this point.  And I don't see why it wouldn't trend north with the SE ridge being persistent this year.    The timing of the waves and how the two pieces of energy at 500mb will likely determine.  They meet earlier, its a cutter, they separate, one may go NW of us, the other out to sea.

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Quiet for a while, and fairly warm to seasonal.

12-29  After a quick shot of cold from todays storm, a milder airmass moves in. Below are the temp anomaly for Jan 4.
After a storm cuts to the lakes on the 5th, a colder to seasonal air mass moves in.  Right now there are a number of impulses which move along the front to our south between the 7th and 9th.  Those may migrate north as the trend this year is to cut to the lakes.   Otherwise, there's a low to our north which could bring snow showers on the 1st.   The boring winter continues.