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Thursday, December 7, 2017

12-9 Continuing post Thanksgiving


Latest Nam3k trends, rain and snow

Winter weather advisory up for 4-6 inches.  Heavier modeled amounts have backed off for the 12z models.

12/7  Apparently some new data hit the 12z run today and our little wave is progged to become a low and move up the coast.  Here is how the precip forecast has progressed


Sunday, November 26, 2017

Post Thanksgiving - where is snow?

12/6  Still looks like a coastal scraper. Still thinking 50/50 for 1" accumulating snow, but that would also include snow showers associated with the upper level low/clipper coming behind it.  Euro and GFS keep accumulating snow just offshore of the NJ/SNE area, with some rain/snow in NC/VA/MD.  NAM had been showing snow for most areas within 30 miles of the coast, but the 18z run backed off.  The UKIE and NAVGEM showing a benchmark storm, bringing snow.   Odd setup for the models.  Usually, from west to east, its NAM/UKIE/Euro/GFS/NavGem with the CMC all over the place (which has a 4-5 inch storm for us currently). So seeing the NavGem so far west is troubling but I think its because its consolidating energy just due to lower resolution.  GFS and Euro having similar output is odd as well.

Euro 48hr precip

GFS 48hr precip
Yet here is the NavGem
Ukie is also still west, but precip map only goes out to 72hrs

12/3  Still focused on 12/9-10 timeframe for first accumulating.

12z GFS
6z gfs
0z GFS

0z euro

After the 9-10 period, we stay cold enough for snow as other minor disturbances continue along.  Enough to say with some confidence we will have snow on the ground prior to Christmas..
12z gfs

0z euro

But for Christmas.... this is the12-19 temp anomalies at 5000 feet.  Seems to want to warm on the GFS
Not so on the Euro control which has it very cold.

12-1  Evening - 18z GFS run with a super storm on the 15th.  Crazy run, keeping for posterity.  Frame before has a 997 low over KY. 12hrs later its 965 then 946mb.

Strong block over Greenland contributing, along with strong jet coming in from behind.

12-1  Euro this afternoon, still close.  GFS has a cutter.

11-30  Euro this morning for the 9th.  Just misses NYC but clips SNE
GFS remains more progressive, flatter flow, but also just misses.  Enough to put flakes in the air.
But then follows with a clipper that swings through and intensifies
And ends the run with a good ole fashioned noreaster!

11-27  EPS for this morning, not getting the cold air in on time.
0z GFS brushes SNE, but gets the cold in.
6z GFS comes in too far west.

11-26  Pattern is seasonable with some warm ups, cold front passing, warm up.  Nothing terribly extreme, perhaps a high of 55 in the next two weeks one or two days, with most days in the mid to upper 40's.  One chance of rain/wet snow on 12-1 with a frontal passage.  IF we can get a storm to spin  up out of that, it might come close enough after frontal passage to bring a small amount of snow.  Right now, it looks like your standard frontal passage.

I've been on this kick for a pattern change (or perhaps just the next step colder) to come around the 12th-15th. Not much behind this, other than looking at where we are now and not seeing anything in the next 10 days to change things up.  Plus we ran cold from the 7th to 15th, have gone back and forth averaging normal for the last 10 days, and are likely a touch warmer than normal for the next 7-10.   Now that I read this back, its really more of a step down.  Supporting this change are the Euro weeklies posted by Paul Pastelok on AWPRO

Anyway, in checking the snow maps, the EPS came in with a storm on December 10.  Pretty decent one too. 
GFS has a coastal on the 6z run with some snow here.  The 18z has one that is rain, except for upstate NY and central PA. 

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

First snow map

11-7  Had some wet snow mix in from time to time but not enough to call it first flakes.  More like first splotches on the windshield.

Pattern looks to have shifted with more zonal or troughy look to it rather than being under a ridge. This is second or third run in a row with this on the Euro.  GFS still has it get warmer as we get closer to Thanksgiving.  Euro EPS control however puts snow down.  First real snow map of the season.

Its from a cut off upper level low with another low coming into it from the Atlantic, so take it lightly. Westward moving lows don't usually cause snow.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Official end of growing season 11/1

Below is the statement from the NWS ending the growing season with our first freeze
We got down to 30.9 here and it stayed below freezing for about 2 hours, but did not end the growing season as all our plants are alive and doing fine.

NOUS41 KOKX 011248

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
848 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...The growing season has come to an end...

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred overnight and early this
morning across Western Passaic and Western Bergen Counties of New
Jersey, interior southern Connecticut and southeastern Suffolk
County in New York bringing an end to the growing season.

Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be
issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring
of 2018.


Friday, October 27, 2017

October 30th

10-28  afternoon.  12z Euro gusts are out of control. Has to be something wrong with the output.

10-28  Not too much in the way of changes.  Track is narrowed between E.PA and E CT.  What exactly happens with the tropical system needs to be worked on. Does it remain an entity and hit the Cape and Islands, or does it lose its energy to the low going up NJ into PA/NY .  Some precip maps.
Euro precip

GFS precip

Nam precip

Nam 3k
 Winds still a concern, particularly east of the CT river, but that could bleed to the NY/CT border.  LI is also vulnerable.

A closer look at winds in Southern new england

Euro gusts

Nam gusts

10-27  Been watching this one develop for a week now, with fairly consistent big picture trends but details still a bit off.   Idea behind this one is a tropical system start developing off Central America and quickly moves north, crossing Cuba/FL.  Whether this is named or not doesn't matter.  Even if its just an amorphous blob of moisture, it will do its job.  At the same time this entity moves NNE, an energetic upper low drops out of the upper plains into the TN valley area and spawns a low pressure system which merges with the unnamed tropical system.  The position of the ULL draws that system up the coast.  The Euro has it as a 980 low going parallel to NJ and up the Hudson Valley. The NAM a 976 low over LI/CT and the GFS targets SE Mass with a weaker 992mb low.

The differences in track, though not off by much for a fall storm, brings much different scenarios to areas.  GFS focuses most of the precip east, euro west, nam down the middle. Winds are east on NAM and GFS, over CT on the Euro.

Euro gusts

Euro Precip

GFS gusts

GFS pecip

Nam Gusts

Nam Precip
Other models:  JMA looking similar to Euro precip wise.  CMC I'm tossing as it develops the tropical system (as usual) and has it hit ACK as a hurricane.  NAVGEM on the other hand doesn't develop the tropical system until later, missing the interaction, but the lp spawns anyway and precip looks like GFS, though a completely different set up. UKMET hard to tell with 24 hr gaps, but has low off NJ similar to Euro but looks like its going more of a NAM track.

So big picture, a fairly potent storm coming to the northeast.