March 18-19

3-19 -Low came up through the lakes, but the "warm" front did come up front loaded and we had 5" of snow before it drizzled and briefly showered rain at 32 degrees.  Temp stayed below freezing for just about all the precip, but there was not a lot of ice.

3/16
Models back and forth on this at first, settled for a storm through the lakes.  Euro/NAM /CMC showing front end snow, a few inches Monday night.  Euro has trended cold and is way different than GFS. Euro then GFS  - Euro much colder for now, almost a major snow storm.  GFS even has a few inches though. NAM Compromises.  My guess now is 2-4 inches front loaded, turning to rain.

TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -1.2    -3.7    1026      62     100    0.01     558     538    
TUE 06Z 19-MAR   0.1    -3.0    1020      91      98    0.15     557     541    
TUE 12Z 19-MAR   1.1     0.8    1010      95     100    0.56     553     544    
TUE 18Z 19-MAR   1.7     0.8    1005      87      53    0.61     545     541    
WED 00Z 20-MAR   0.0    -5.7    1006      90      14    0.02     531     525 

 GFS

TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -0.2    -1.7    1021      76      99    0.02     556     539    
TUE 06Z 19-MAR   0.9    -0.5    1015      97     100    0.34     555     542    
TUE 12Z 19-MAR   2.3     4.2    1006      99      96    0.09     552     547    
TUE 18Z 19-MAR   5.1     5.8     994      99      63    0.45     544     549    
WED 00Z 20-MAR   1.9    -7.1    1000      88      55    0.00     524     524 

 NAM

MON  8P 18-MAR  -1.0    -2.4    1021      84     100    0.04     556     539    
TUE  2A 19-MAR  -0.5     0.4    1014      94      99    0.36     555     544    
TUE  8A 19-MAR   0.5     4.6    1008      96      90    0.11     551     545    
TUE  2P 19-MAR   4.7    -2.9    1007      73      10    0.14     542     536  

Inverted Trough

Top storm totals

HARTFORD COUNTY...
   MANCHESTER            18.5   230 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MARLBOROUGH           15.5   156 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   ROCKY HILL            14.0   158 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   BURLINGTON            13.9   346 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WETHERSFIELD          12.5   157 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH WINDSOR         12.5   659 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

 TOLLAND COUNTY...
   STAFFORDVILLE         23.0   600 AM  3/09  COOP OBSERVER
   TOLLAND               22.5   341 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   COVENTRY              21.0   749 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STAFFORD SPRINGS      20.5   137 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

 .WINDHAM COUNTY...
   ASHFORD               18.0   404 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WOODSTOCK             17.2   340 PM  3/08  SPOTTER
   POMFRET CENTER        15.0   703 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   BROOKLYN              14.0  1049 AM  3/08  HAM RADIO

BRISTOL COUNTY...
   NORTON                22.6   430 PM  3/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SOUTH EASTON          22.5   851 AM  3/09  HAM RADIO
   MANSFIELD             21.5   451 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH EASTON          21.2   738 PM  3/08  NONE
   1 W MANSFIELD         21.1   621 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

.ESSEX COUNTY...
   NORTH BEVERLY         18.3   419 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   BEVERLY               16.5  1144 AM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SALEM                 16.2   130 PM  3/08  SPOTTER
   TOPSFIELD             16.0   116 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER 

HAMPDEN COUNTY...
   WALES                 21.0   350 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   MONSON                18.0   349 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   EAST LONGMEADOW       11.5  1139 AM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   LUDLOW                11.0   209 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   DRACUT                22.1   100 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   STOW                  20.5   605 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   SHERBORN              20.0   242 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   FRAMINGHAM            18.8   338 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO 

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY 29.8   700 AM  3/09  COOP OBSERVER
   QUINCY                24.9   441 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   FOXBORO               24.7   550 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH WEYMOUTH        24.1   233 PM  3/08  MEDIA
   RANDOLPH              24.0   530 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

 PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   WHITMAN               22.5   526 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   ROCKLAND              21.5   145 PM  3/08  SPOTTER
   MANSFIELD             21.0   257 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO
   BROCKTON              20.0  1215 AM  3/09  COOP OBSERVER
   HANOVER               18.5   353 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC

SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   JAMAICA PLAIN         18.0   700 AM  3/09  COOP OBSERVER
   BRIGHTON              15.0   800 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC

WORCESTER COUNTY...
   HOLDEN                24.4   204 PM  3/08  SPOTTER
   MILFORD               24.1   410 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   CLINTON               23.4   134 PM  3/08  GENERAL PUBLIC
   OAKHAM                23.0   442 PM  3/08  HAM RADIO

PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   NORTH CUMBERLAND      12.3   609 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WOONSOCKET            11.5   700 PM  3/08  MEDIA
   THOMPSON HILL         11.4   310 PM  3/08  NONE

 
...LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
   THOMASTON DAM         10.5   700 AM  3/09  CO-OP OBSERVER
   NEW HARTFORD           9.8  1227 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORFOLK                9.7   800 AM  3/09  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BAKERSVILLE            8.9   700 AM  3/09  CO-OP OBSERVER 

DUTCHESS COUNTY...
   STORMVILLE            16.5   409 AM  3/09  SPOTTER
   PINE PLAINS           13.0   300 PM  3/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MILLBROOK             10.1   508 PM  3/08  WEATHERNET6

 FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   NEWTOWN               13.1   245 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   SHELTON               13.0   300 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   NEW CANAAN            12.8  1200 PM  3/08  CT DOT
   NEW FAIRFIELD         12.0   230 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   DANBURY               11.7   330 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   SEYMOUR               14.5   230 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   WOLCOTT               14.5   220 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   PROSPECT              14.0   100 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOODBRIDGE            13.5  1240 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER 

ORANGE COUNTY...
   CHESTER               15.5   100 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   HARRIMAN              15.0   200 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MONROE                13.2  1200 PM  3/08  PUBLIC

 NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK           4.0   400 PM  3/08  CENTRAL PARK ZOO

PUTNAM COUNTY...
   KENT CLIFFS           13.0  1015 AM  3/08  PUBLIC
   BREWSTER              12.0  1104 AM  3/08  PUBLIC
   MAHOPAC                8.0  1253 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER 

ESSEX COUNTY...
   CEDAR GROVE            7.5   226 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   WEST ORANGE            7.0   200 PM  3/08  PUBLIC

NASSAU COUNTY...
   NEW HYDE PARK          8.2   300 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   SYOSSET                8.0   800 AM  3/08  PUBLIC

SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ORIENT                 7.1  1210 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   SHOREHAM               5.8   200 PM  3/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER

WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   CHAPPAQUA             12.5  1000 AM  3/08  PUBLIC
   ARMONK                12.3  1240 PM  3/08  PUBLIC
   HAWTHORNE             10.5   830 AM  3/08  PUBLIC 

3/7 - been watching the inverted trough coming off the coastal. Its snowed here since about 1am, with a coating to wake up to as it cooled to freezing near dawn, but now its not accumulating as temps are 34-35 and sun is making it through clouds from time to time.

12z runs
GFS = .6 with surface temps 32-34
Euro = .72 with sf temps 30-33
Nam -= 1.04 with temps 28-33

Presidents day

This is going to sound crazy, but the GFS, UKMET, GEM (canadian), CMC, and Nogaps all have a very serious storm over presidents day weekend.  DGEX and Euro have nothing.  GFS 6z run had a 956 Low over New England. Here are the pix - I'm sticking with the Euro.

Valentines Day

Still a potential for some snow as a storm system goes to our south. Its on all models, and can adjust north during the next day's run, but even if it did, just a few inches for here.  More down south though.

Feb 8-9

Feb 7th

Models vary from a foot on the GFS to 40+ on the NAM.  All have sub 980 low tracking near bm, some inside, some over.  Looking at 18", possibly over by a lot.  But after 18" doesn't really matter.

Latest GFS printout

FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -0.5    -5.3    1022      93      87    0.01     554     536    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB   1.3    -2.9    1014      93      99    0.12     551     539    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -1.2    -3.2    1007      94      99    0.33     544     538    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -6.7    -7.1    1009      96      98    0.40     536     529    
SAT 12Z 09-FEB  -5.3    -8.3    1012      92      94    0.22     535     525 

1.08 tot

Latest NAM 

THU  7P 07-FEB  -2.7    -7.7    1031      55      87             556     532    
FRI  1A 08-FEB  -3.7    -7.3    1029      83      89    0.00     555     533    
FRI  7A 08-FEB  -1.9    -2.6    1023      94      86    0.01     554     536    
FRI  1P 08-FEB  -0.6    -1.2    1016      95      94    0.17     552     539    
FRI  7P 08-FEB  -1.9    -2.0    1004      95      98    0.71     545     541    
SAT  1A 09-FEB  -5.8    -8.1     999      93      99    1.22     534     535    
SAT  7A 09-FEB  -8.1   -10.4    1003      90      92    0.60     530     528    
SAT  1P 09-FEB  -6.8   -11.7    1010      80      80    0.05     535     527

2.76 total

12z Euro

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -6.7    -9.4    1032      56      79    0.00     554     529    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -0.6    -9.0    1031      38      89    0.00     555     530    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.9    -8.0    1031      59      88    0.00     556     532    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.8    -8.3    1029      73      86    0.00     555     532    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.3    -5.6    1024      81      97    0.01     554     535    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -0.7    -2.4    1017      88      98    0.12     552     538    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -0.9    -3.3    1009      89     100    0.53     546     539    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -3.6    -9.2    1004      83      98    0.80     538     534    
SAT 12Z 09-FEB  -6.1    -6.3    1009      80     100    0.87     534     527    
SAT 18Z 09-FEB  -4.1    -6.5    1013      59      88    0.11     538     528     

2.44 total 

 Feb 6th

Danbury
GFS = 1.09 QPF with temps between -1.0 and + 0.2 at 850 for the bulk of precip. 4-8 inches of snow.
Euro = 2.2 QPF with max 850 temp at -3C. 18-24 inches of snow.
NAM = qpf .56 with 850 temps ranging from +.8 to -8.6 with surface temps below 0c the entire event.   3-6 inches of snow

Oddly, Groton's GFS 850 temps are lower the whole time.  Here are the snow maps - note NAM actually has over 70 inches for parts of SE Mass and RI.

Nam has trended towards phasing the system, but does it later than GFS and Euro.  GFS is moving in the direction of the Euro.  So there still can be movement of the heavier precip west (or east, I prefer west based on current trends).  The catch is does that mean more rain.

For places south of Rt 80, this is mostly a rain event, with some change to snow at the end (as it currently stands)

Feb 5th
12z GFS caves to Euro idea of phasing a northern stream system and southern stream system in our area on Friday into Saturday.  There is no blocking so the storm won't last very long, but the Euro is concerning.  It shows a 972mb low over the benchmark, which usually results in a blizzard for the areas NW of NYC, and potentially NYC and LI too.  Euro qpf for danbury is currently 1.53 with temps below 0 at 850 for the duration.  Boston, however, gets clobbered with over 3" of liquid precip and temps just at 0 or below for the duration. Translation - 3 feet.

1/25-26 event

I've been watching this one for a week now and its gone from blizzard to flizzard. The odd thing is that its a clipper (some call it a Miller B) which slides south of NYC, and should result in a 2-4 inch snow at minimum for CT.  However, it fizzles out and reforms (hence the Miller B nature) but too far offshore for anything more than an inch.  There should be high snow ratios though as the air is perfect temp for the highest ratio.  Still wondering if we can get 4+ out of this - there is no model supporting more than a dusting to an inch, but it still seems too low.

Light snow event tonite

Looking for some snow, 2-4 inches, perhaps more.  This is a front loaded snow fall and will probably turn to rain or freezing rain, but only after most of the precip has fallen.  Typically, these overperform model guidance, so while .25 is the precip amount predicted, it may result in 4 inches of snow.