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Saturday, December 26, 2009

New Years Eve and weekend after

12/31 - after having the models still disagree yesterday, all have come around on 0z runs today to have the second storm form way too far out to sea. Some (euro) still produce moisture enough to snow, while others don't. Instead of pivoting the low into cape cod, they now just have it going into canada. The exception is WRF 6z run which still has low on sunday in gulf of maine. Result is only snow for the first storm here as radar looks good. Second storm may bring flurries here and only wrf and cmc has precip progged for vt. The euro doesn't prog precip, but its RH maps support snow through sunday. Amazingly, the WRF, CMC, UKMet and GFS still don't have much snow on the first one, if any, and the mets are calling for 2-5 inches. Good for them unless this dries up again as radar looks good for 2 inches at least. Other thing is that they all have the low closing over us, which should have resulted in some dynamics to produce precip with the available moisture.

12/29 afternoon runs -
CMC - 1st still misses. 2nd has upper energy catch up and stalls it, but further out to sea than gfs. Still has us at the southern edge of the snow, but pounds north of MA. Snows mostly friday afternoon thru sunday. Goes to 962mb in gulf of maine and spins around until Monday.
Euro - weaker first system with snow. Second catches up but off shore, then spins back into Maine then out on Sunday. Keeps all of NE in the right RH% for snow.
Ukmet - up to 72 hrs, does not have anything through 12z friday. Profile supports all snow, as does CMC and EURo. On longer map, it bombs out just east of the 40/70 to 976 on Sat mornand spins back to Cape cod on Sunday morn.
DGEX looks like it bombs out over the benchmark, rotates around the gulf of maine down to 970mb, back over ACK on sunday nite then out. But the precip field only reaches back to hartford
12z gfs pushes first low east of benchmark on thurs nite, with precip after midnite, as rain. Waits until Saturday, well off cape cod for the other energy to catch up and it bombs out, pivoting into Maine and the gulf of maine/ Tries to exit over the cape, but dissapates. The precip field is not very far west, nor south. It does reach 976 while over Maine, but only brings precip to north of midway up vt, nh and me. Essentially a non event for W. CT.
18z run is much less organized with the first wave, with precip starting Fri morn, and rain line much further south and east than 12 z. Much more likely to have snow in W CT on this run.All north of CT is snow, as opposed to 12z run which had rain all the way into vt and nh. The low stalls all day Friday, literally in the sound, out to ACK. Then the second one catches up and it explodes, rotating into the gulf of maine and out over the cape again. This should crush most of new england, but the precip is not impressive
WRF/NAM - up to Friday has nothing for CT as first wave goes out to sea.
JMA is also saying out to sea, when it explodes and turns into the border of Maine, so it misses us.
Its truly amazing that 4 days out, the models (WRF and GFS) are so opposite.

12/28 morning runs

Euro - has front runner thurs nite with 540 line just s of ct. by fri nite its a 992 over RI, Sat nite its 992 over NH. So not that strong, but persistent as its caught in the upper low

CMC - first system thurs nite brushes us, second system goes off shore where it phases well out to sea. Maybe a few inches thurs nite

UKMEt - moves one storm up to the west of us

DGEX - has a 970 low just south of LI, to ACK - starts Fri and ends Mon morn. snow is off the chart - see above - should be more widespread

GFS - starts thurs nite, rains in CT and tracks over CT where it bombs to 992 and hangs out until sunday morn

JMA - goes out to sea and back into maine as a 969 low.

Summary - models everywhere and flip flopping - not sure if one or two systems, or if the first will stick around, bomb out or what. Very likely we will have snow, less likely rain, and unlikely nothing.

12/27 morning runs
Euro - forms storm over SC thurs nite, moves off cape cod fri night. Does not phase with n stream and cut off until way out to sea
CMC - forms one storm over VA thurs nite which goes out to sea with min snow. Forms another storm off FL and brings up coast off NC sat nite and just to our east, bombing out, sunday with a few inches of snow
UKMet - forms thurs nite off VA and goes out to sea (at 144) no indication of another storm following
DGEX - major 30 inch storm as it starts NEw years, gets caught in the upper low and explodes friday during the day. anywhere from 12-30 inches show up on the snow map
GFS has storm off coast of NC at noon on 12/31, going out to sea with min effects. But another forms over TN and FL and they phase Friday during the day with a 1004 right off NJ coast. That sticks around, caught by the upper low cut off, until Sun morn (180 hrs). It deepens to 992 before occluding and weakening. Would be major snow event.

Watch for weak storm to come in around New years eve, with a stronger one following . CMC has blizzard the following weekend, Euro has big noreaster. JMA and GFS jump on the 12-31 storm instead.

Correction - 12z gfs now has it in the second storm with the first one weaker. But second storm is not strong and is a little too far off thecoast. This will move back in time.

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