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Wednesday, September 8, 2010


9/21 Igors eye technically missed Bermuda to the west. Bermuda had 36 hrs of tropical storm conditions and a few gusts over 100mph. The airport readings maxed at 74mph sustained and 93mph gust. Again, another hurricane unpredictably lost strength on its way to landfall. Igor is sideswiping Newfoundland today.

9/17 - Igor still at cat 3-4 strength. Bermuda preparing for the worst. Euro swung east yesterday, but is barely west, worst case scenario, of bermuda. GFS 0z and 6z have the center just to the west (worst case) and the ensembles have a direct hit (spread is max both east and west). CMC looks to be a direct hit. Nogaps continues its misery being too far west. It goes all the way to 69w , but grazes Bermuda on the way back east. UKMET has direct hit.

NHC claims outside influenses will not affect the hurricane intensity until it reaches Bermuda. Julia is headed right toward Igor. Igor's eye isn't all that strong now, although convection is growing.

9/15 - not much time lately. Igor is still at 20N, moving slowly, barely north. Its latest advisory is at 135, but the latest ADT is at 140mph, with 941 pressure. Igor still heading mostly west, although the description by the NHC is 300 degrees, the last 3 hours are due west. Models are a bit further west, ATCF going to 65 degrees (hitting Bermuda), Hwrf similar (but recurving faster to miss bermuda to the east. GFDL must be running now ,no access. Nam still has it heading nw at 84hrs at 65 degrees. Euro goes to 67, missing Bermuda to the west. NHC hits it square as a cat 2. 18z GFS is now west to 67 and misses Bermuda to the west. UKMET has it hitting, a bit to the west though, Bermuda.

9/13 - Igor remains at 150mph, but looks to be ewr tonite, weakening slightly. Path still heading west, at times wsw. All models except ukmet call for Igor to recurve near Bermuda. We will wait until the nw motion starts before calling off any threat for the coast, but this one is modeling that it will stay out to sea. Only difference is whether its east, west or directly over Bermuda. It should weaken to three by then.

Igor went from "almost a hurricane" at 5pm on 9/11 to a 140mph cat 4 monster by 5pm on 9/12
ATCF models recurve as far west as 65 degrees at about 35N.
GFDL and Hwrf don't go out as far, but show a nw general path. GFDL more nnw heading towards bermuda and Hwrf more wnw to nw. Gfdl is at 62 and Hwrf at 67 - both seem to still be heading NW at that time.
Euro begins recurve at 72n/32w on 12z run. 71 degrees on the 0z run
CMC240 oz runs it straight wnw to NC/SC but stops it 200 mi or so east and turns it around
gfs - 0z just east of bermuda and out, 6z hits bermuda, 12z goes just west of bermuda. Supported by ensembles which have it just to the east, but with the most spread just to the west. 18z has it back to 67w now. Bermuda is near 65w.

Igor breached etiquette today is it skipped double dare and went to double dog dare. Named a TS at the outset. Two models on this long range:
Euro - has it heading west, and a bit wnw at day 10. Looks like it will be picked by a trough prior to landfall in US
GFS - 12z - heads it west, ridge breaks and it heads north just east of Bermuda where it gets trapped and swings into Maine.
6z - heads west, ridge breaks and heads north just eastward of Bermuda, but before it gets there hooks west again, then North, missing the island to the west
0z - clear recurve east of Bermuda
18z heads east of Bermuda, landfall in Nova Scotia

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