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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Last one - 31st?

0z euro output - note temps are marginal, but precip is rather
great
time surfac 850 press hum precip thck height
06Z 01-APR 2.6 -1.5 1009 78 29 0.00 546 538
12Z 01-APR 1.6 -2.0 1003 85 90 0.14 540 538
18Z 01-APR 1.8 -1.9 998 89 91 0.67 533 535
00Z 02-APR 1.6 -4.2 999 91 96 0.31 530 531
06Z 02-APR -0.8 -3.2 997 93 75 0.02 529 531
3-29 morning - euro and gfs in unholy alliance with noreaster on friday.
Timing is critical as gfs is earlier and overnite resulting in 6+ snow
Euro is later and falls mostly during the day, which should limit accums
12z gfs showing slightly colder temps than euro. Both produce around an inch
of precip.

DGEX, UKMET and CMC are out to sea. NAM doesn't have the storm.















3-28 Somethings coming.... using accuweather graphics today.
Ukmet runs today showed the worst case scenario with a stacked lows, cut off and 970 mb. It stood alone in its severity, with the DGEX coming in next with a 976 low parked off shore, and over 18 inches of snow for the tristate. GFS has various solutions, all giving at least CT some snow, with the bullseye generally around Springfield MA. It only goes to about 980. Euro is very odd with a low off NC/VA that stalls from thurs morn into fri afternoon. But finer resolution on accuweather pro shows why - its two different storms. More of a brushing by for us, but still bringing snow. It only goes to 1008 mb. JMA, just to be different, cuts it up over Pittsburgh. GFS Ens are frightening at 12z, but the other runs have it going SE of the BM. CMC is out to sea with both today.

Call - not looking like a nice way to end the week. If its a month ago, even two weeks, its definitely a snow storm. But with warmer air around, it may snow like crazy and not accumulate. If its precipitating on Friday as heavy as it looks, then its also not going to be in the 40's or 50's. I'm thinking heavy wet snow for here, with N Ct and higher elevs getting 3-7 inches. Here, if at night, we could get the same.



Order of pix should be dgex snow, ukmet, gfs 12z and gfs 18z, dgex slp









3-27 A Tale of two Euros

3-31 and 4-1 pix with two different solutions. So either a minor storm on Thurs (0z run) or major storm on Sat (12z)

Models of no use - GFS is all over the place. CMC is the most consistent, bringing snow on Th and Sat. DGEX has the same.

NWS has nothing forecast












3-25 The overnight and morning gfs runs have the storm still, as does the ukmet. DGEX, JMA has it going to our south, CMC, Nogaps and Euro don't have anything organized, but do have a wave going to our south. update: 12z Euro now has minor storm similar to 0z gfs. 12z ukmet flipped to the 0z euro solution.

3-23 evening. All afternoon runs of the models below no longer have any storms - any moisture goes east south of NC.








3-23 - euro, GFS. DGEXand CMC all have a Low off the coast on 3/30-31. 850 temps support snow here.

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