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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Will this be the last post until next winter?

While I doubt its the last post, I don't see any change in the typical La Nina pattern which has now set in. That pattern, which was supposed to take root in January, is a back and forth pattern. Storm comes through, cold air rushes in, next storm cuts west brings warm air up just in time for rain, then it turns cold again and then warm right before the next storm. If cold air damming can take place, then front end snow. If cold air comes in fast enough at the end, then some light accumulation after the front passes. I don't see anything which indicates a prolonged period of major warmth or major cold either - just a one or two day period of each with normal in between. Heck, I don't even see any temps that are beyond 10 degrees of normal anyhow.

So we will see this type of pattern, likely until true spring (today is meteorological spring). The only way to get snow is to sneak a smaller storm in between the big ones, like a clipper.

So todays run of the GFS showed potential minor snow on the 5th, with the only possible true snow storm on the 14th - and that's a long way off. By then, maybe the PNA will go positive.

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