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Friday, November 18, 2011

Analogs

Throwing an idea out there - we've had a wet early fall, so what other years have been wet or had a wet fall and how did the following winter turn out temp wise

Wettest Aug/Sept/Oct periods were:
1927 – 22.8 warmer
1933 – 21.46 cooler
1989 – 22.85 warmer 1c
2005 – 21.17 warmer 2c
1983 – 20.56 warmer .5c
1955 – 20.4
1934 – 17.55 (cooler .5)

Wettest years with over 60" of precip by October were:
1972 – 67.03 (Warmer 1c)
1975 – 61.21 (Warmer .5c)
1983 – 80.56 (Warmer .5c)
1989 – 65.11 (Warmer 1c)
1990 – 60.92 (Warmer 5c)
2007 – 61.7 (Warmer 3c)

Overwhelming indication that the DJF period will be warmer than normal

11-26 note: arguing against analogs is my three month cycle theory. JUN/JUL/AUG were below norm with SEPT/OCT/NOV above normal. This would lead to a below norm for DEC/JAN/FEB.

12-13 note:  as of right now, there is no snow in the long range models for the rest of the month.  Using Poughkepsie stats, here are some other years without snow in December and how they turned out:
2006 - Jan('07) 1.5; Feb 17.5; Mar 3.2  note Dxr had 8.3 in Feb
1994  - Jan ('95) 0;  Feb 4; Mar 0

And years with under 1.5 inches:
2004 - Jan(05) 22; Feb 11; Mar 16
1999 - Jan(00) 6.4; Feb 2.1; Mar 0
1998 - Jan (99) 15.9; Feb 1.5; Mar 1.9
1997 - Jan (98) 0; Feb 13; Mar 1.6

Out of those years, 98 and 99 were dry at POU, although other stations were closer to normal. 
There are no years to compare where we got 17 inches in October.

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