11-26 While there are hints of at least a 3 day period of below normal temps at some point in second week, those hints are not yet consistent. Euro and CMC show very little cold air, with 540 lines right over us as the coldest. GFS still shows a trough digging in the eastern half of the country, but it lasts three days. Keep in mind normal temps for Dec are 45 to start 35 to end. It does look a bit closer to normal compared to what has happened lately though. With Nov, Oct and Sept being above normal, it should switch to colder soon. Unless you read my analog post.
No model has any threat of snow for next ten days. Will post again once trough becomes established or if storm threat arises.
11-22 Watching long range models which have been showing cold air invasion in week two, but keeps trending to splitting the trough and pumping warmth in. No evidence that even if the cold air gets here, that it stays for over a few days. Watching highs develop over OK/TX and moving NE over Mid Atlantic. Not a cold pattern. Will check in after Thanksgiving.
Still a borderline snow event for Tues, Wed before Thxgvg. Just a matter of whether the storm goes flat and underdeveloped, or if it amplifies and winds up (and where it deepens as well). Nothing very strong in any event.
Asided from a temporary cold blast or two from frontal passages, no colder than normal weather or snow is in the next two weeks. I am keeping an eye on the time period around Thanksgiving as there could be enough cold air aloft to bring some wet snow, but its not quite as impressive as the Oct. storms.