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Friday, January 27, 2012

Feb 3-5

0z runs
Euro surpresses fridays wave and sundays wave. No sustained cold.
GFS surpresses fridays wave and hits us with storm Sun nite. Snow/rain system as it comes too close. 6z brushes us on friday with light snow, nothing on sat, sun or mon. Both GFS runs keep it cold after Thursdays front. cold recedes at end of run
CMC still develops it thurs/fri as a rain/snow, slides sunday storm out to sea. Cold stays until end of run
DGEX blasts storm to our west, brings rain

Euro pushes it to the lakes - rain. CMC has a direct hit - snow. 0z GFS has a nice light snow storm. 6z pushes it out to sea south of us as a wave, with another low going out e of SC. JMA has a wave sliding right over us with temps just cold enough for snow. Nogaps has a wave sliding south with a major storm passing to our east on Sun. UKMET has a 1024 High just to our south on fri with a 1008 low in TX - would assume that goes to lakes and its really warm. DGEX has us getting creamed with a 994 Low on Sat morn.

12 z runs
GFS - slides Friday weak storm ots. Sun storm ots
CMC - consolidats on Sat - brings weak storm way close to us, snow/rain/snow event
Euro - slides 1008 south of CT, but too close for all snow. Snow/rain/snow event.
UMKET -hard to see anything
DGEX - slides both out to see like GFS

1-28 - All models have lost the bulk of the storm and instead push a wave out to sea, in some cases all the way down to SC

1-27 Finally some truly interesting scenarios coming up.

Superbowl weekend is what I hope to be the start of a more sustained winter pattern. While temps this week are still above normal, we do have a chance at snow showers on Sunday, then some up and down temps.

A northern stream system is going to pass to our north on Wednesday and behind it some colder air will filter in. The r/s line will be splitting CT on Thursday. Thurs nite into Friday, another northern branch storm will get far enough south to pick up some Gulf moisture. A southern system may also be there as well, heading NE. It will run into that moderately cold air from Thursday. As the storm moves E to W, along I-90, a secondary is progged to form and the energy transfer to the coast. Right now, that transfer looks to be taking place over us, so its a little too far north for all snow, but as the two systems phase, it may bomb out, drawing cold air into the system enough for a snow to rain, to snow event.

If that transfer can happen more off of NJ or MD, we would be in a good position.

Right now the Euro and Gfs are battling over which system prevails - Euro has northern system with reformation over Boston. GFS 0z has the southern system going off the coast to our south, normally a no brainer snow storm, but would be too warm this year. 6z GFS has a compromise between the two, with stronger southern storm phasing over CT. JMA has just a southern storm missing us to the south. CMC has phase take place over TN/KY and moves the storm, as it deepens, from PA to CT.

So GFS and JMA are southern, Euro is Northern, CMC is early phase and right over us. Based on this winter, I'd say it moves over Lake Erie and up the St Lawrence.

12z runs - GFS had a weak system sliding off south of us, with some snow kicking back in what looks like an inverted trough. Euro has a credible storm as it abandonded the northern wave in favor of developing the southern and bringing it off nj. CMC looks to be going up Del river, with snow on the front. JMA double barrels it up, but the 850 temps are +10!

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