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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Out of sheer boredom...12th - 13th maybe not!

1-13 Woke up to radio saying black ice. Temp of 36 at 6am. 48 at 8am, then snow and back to 36 by 10am. Temps dropped into the 20's by late afternoon and winds gusted 20-30mph. A flake once in a while, but most of the snow dried up before it got here.

1-12 36 and rain. Snow in N CT though, enough to delay schools and plow.

1-10 NWS had 1-3 inches in their forecast earlier today, then scaled it back to an inch. GFS runs today all put snow on the ground in CT, but not south of CT. 18z Nam puts some snow in far NW Jersey and PA as well. 0z run is way warmer aloft with not even flakes falling in NJ nor accumulating in S CT. N CT still gets an inch. Catskills and VT should make out ok with this storm, finally.

1-9 Snow on front and end of this one?? And out of nowhere, a high over Quebec, funneling in cold air, creating cold air damming (CAD). Will surface temps support accumulating snow - 850 temps do!

12z euro and gfs 72 hr time frame for thursday morn has the 850 line over NYC, with the CMC closer to i84 (which is colder than the 0z run) and UKMET at the CT/MA border. NAM is not signed onto it as of 12z. GFS ens and Euro Ens are too. Right now, based on GFS and Euro QPF output and 850 temps, about 2" can fall before turning to rain. Will watch if a colder trend continues. Also, the GFS puts out an inch or two on the back end. This is possible since the upper low is hanging around, but typically it dries out to only flurries.

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1-6 - Only agreement is that it will rain. Oddly, most of these tracks would normally be a strong snow storm.
0z Euro - keeps upper disturbances (uds) separate. Brings LP up apps to BM
12z - keeps separate, brings LP up apps, but then phases uds and lps over NNE
0z CMC - same as 0z Euro
12z - way different, very creative. Brings LP and UDS from south west of apps, passes front, spawns secondary, which misses us out to sea.
DGEX - looks like Euro, but a colder system aloft, stacked, with 540 line island in middle, so chance for wet snow where that happens.
UKmet - 0z looks like Euro, 12z run brings it further northwest.
GFS - 0z - track like Euro, but colder and west of BM, with 850 line in E Pa.
6z - up apps, over BM. SLP meets the northern LP (NLP) in Maine, with 850 line in central PA
12z UDs are separate, but barely. LP's phase over PA, stacked under the Southern UD. Secondary forms as trough is negative, and brushes the coast the next day with snow.


1-5 Still multiple solutions, all rain at this point. Still worth watching.

0z gfs - keeps northern and southern separate, moves both east, southern ends up coming up the coast, right over us.
6z - almost phases the two, but drops the northern into west great lakes, while southern goes up apps, the two lows phase over the lakes, but the upper system from the southern stream heads to nova scotia
12z northern system cuts off in the upper plains, southern system goes up oh/tn valley, out off of nj. looks stacked (upper over lower) which also makes it a colder system with the 540 thickness coming close to snow.
0z euro - phases the upper systems over the lakes, tries to keep the surface separate with the southern system coming through oh valley to over NYC.
12z euro - keeps upper systems separate, moves one main low up the apps to over NYC.
0z cmc -keeps upper systems separate, dumps northern into plains, southern rides up apps, looking stacked, with a secondary surface low forming over new england.
12z fully phases, blizzard for western lakes, one low over the lakes.
JMA keeps the upper features separate, focuses surface pressures up the coast.

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1-4 Its been looking like clearly a rain storm for the past few days, as a cut off low moves up from the south to our west. But there is also a northern system diving down. Where these two meet up, or which one gets here first, could gum up that mild looking storm. If that northern system bumps the southern to the coast, or they consolidate over our area, there may be an impressive rain/snow storm.

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