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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Finally saw a dusting fall.. and 1-9 or 1-10

1-5- just flurries, maybe, for the weekend. A snow squall would be exciting at this point.

1-4 Model update for weekend - trending to nothing

Euro - 0z run has clipper passing to the north, dragging warm air up for Saturday. No longer develops southern system coming up coast, but does generate a storm offshore on Sunday night out of a shortwave rounding the trough. Could also see flurries as the cold air pours in Sunday into Monday. Another sw comes over on Tues night, when it will be cold enough for snow flurries. 12z run is even more benign

GFS 0z has nothing for the weekend, slides a low off OBX Mon nite.
6z nothing for the weekend. Nothing Mon nite. Potent storm moves up on Wed, rain for everyone east of Chi-town.
12z nothing for the weekend, slides the low off OBX Mon nite. Cant rule out snow flurries Sat nite

CMC 0z. shortwave is further south than Euro or GFS, with a low forming just off the coast on Sun morn. Brushes area with snow. 12z run has nothing.

UKMET has the storm forming well offshore on Monday.

Woke up at 6, 27 degrees. Light snow started around 6:30 and coated the ground, briefly. Temps since have gone down to 23, despite bright sun.

Looking ahead...

0z runs - Euro, Canadian and Nogaps models have a small storm off the coast with some snow on 1-9. GFS, DGEX have the storm forming off SC on the 10th, and sliding ENE out to sea. Beyond that there are some signs of a pattern change, with the AO and NAO going neutral to negative. Except the PNA then flips to negative, resulting in ridging in the east. At least the high pressures are now coming out of Canada, instead of up from Texas. But the pna going negative signals the troughs dropping down into CA, cutting off over AZ/NM. Hoping the negative AO and NAO pan out in this case to keep the cutoffs in place or further south. Pattern so far has been for the upper lows to come out of AZ and ride northeast instead of opening up or staying south.

12 runs - Euro is mainly rain. GFS signed onto there being a storm now, more snow than rain for CT, parts south would be mainly rain. Canadian 12z came in with the front passing and a storm developing after it passes, and has a good snow for all the area. Nogaps looks like Canadian. These usually get lost for the next day, then push west. The other thing to watch is there is another storm forecast by all to go out to sea on Tuesday, and another coming up the coast or inland on Thursday. Thats a lot of action (too much) for this year so it looks suspicious.

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