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Friday, August 31, 2012

Tracking Leslie


With the dismal modeling of Isaac, which was originally out to sea, then up the coast, then Fl, then Tampa, panhandle and finally Louisiana, I thought it would be interesting to track Leslie and the furthest west she gets, before recurving, on each 0z and 12z run. Coordinates are W/N

9-4
0z Euro 68/35 on 9/10
0z gfs 67/33, now west of Bermuda
Crazy uncle CMC is now back on meds with 68/35ish
UKMET at 120 is at 68/33
I would call this a consensus, but still interested to see a) if Isaacs remnants which dove south tangle with the front coming through the midwest and start something on either side of FL and b) or is there a cut off low instead that influences Leslie a bit farther west. Most longer range models showing landfall in Canada at this point. Utimate endgame still has some spread per graphic below.


9-3
0z Euro 68/36 on 9/9
0z GFS 63/24 today -it brings it east a bit then due north along 62W until 9/10
Crazy Uncle, CMC still heads it towards the Cape and hits Maine
Nogaps east of GFS
UKMET makes it to 70/35 hr 144
Spread between UKMET and Nogaps is 540 miles at hr 144

12z GFS 63/34 before turning ots
12z EUro 69-36 Grazes Cape cod, follows coast from Maine to NS.
12z CMC getting close to Cape Cod and Maine
12z UMKET slowing down, but still heading toward Conus at 144.

12z Model Spread is widening again. System is weakening since this mornings huge convection and cloud tops at -86--88c. NHC calling it 7mph, but looks stationary over last 6 hrs. Oddly no 2pm advisory


9-2

12z euro 66/36 on 9/8
12z gfs 65/35 on 9/9
0z euro 67/35 on 9/8
0z GFS 63/24 on 9/3 and 63/33 on 9/9

fwiw, cmc has it breaking 70w at hr 144 around 34n (Crazy Uncle from the north -see below pic)
Hwrf an GFDS have it going fairly strait north with a few wobbles west. Hwrf goes towards Bermuda at the end of its run on the 13th, almost at 64/32. GFDL goes north along 33W to the end of its run on the 8th.

Convection is rather strong tonite too, center is under the convection but on the northern edge



9-1 - may not be as interesting as thought...
12z Euro 65/30 on 9/7 hits Bermuda, almost dead on
12z GFS 63/26 on 9/6 heads due north after
GFDL and HWRF are similar, but dont go out as far
Model spread is tighter than 8/31, but split between heading west or east of Bermuda, or looping around


0z GFS at 62/26 -well east of Bermuda
6z GFS at 60/26 - well east of Bermuda
0z Euro 64/26 -just east of Bermuda


While Leslie is still not a hurricane, she is much stronger and has a more organized appearance than Isaac did at this point. Weaker storms, as noted with Isaac, go further west and can miss troughs easier. Model spread shows storm slowing down and the models really have no idea after 72 hrs - some loop it around, some go west more go east. Leslie may be a hurricane later today. Shear looks to be a problem as the ADT has the center north of the main convection. NHC not intensifying much beyond 80 mph.

8-31

6z GFS goes to 70/35 and 69/40 - takes it into Maine

0z Euro at 68W34N on 9/8
0z GFS has it at 67W/36N and 66w/40n
GFDL at 63/25
Model spread is between Charleston and literally, Galway.



12z GFS takes it to 66/35, just west of Bermuda, hits Canada
12z Euro goes to 67/34, just west of the GFS, but sharply recurves

8-30

The 0z run of Euro has Leslie just to the SE of the benchmark on 9/8.
The 0z run of the GFS has Leslie at 55W 43N on 9/8
Model spread has it as far as 60W at 25N

12z Euro is at 67W/36 on 9/9
12z GFS has it at 61W/27N on 9/4


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