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Friday, November 30, 2012

December 10th

12-5 - still a lot of players on the field and with it different solutions.  None of the current model runs have much if any snow for our area, but there is considerable differences with how different features play out.

Latest euro brings front through today (weds) and stalls the next front to our north on Sat and Sun (8&9) with weak impulses running up it until a weak 1004 low forms over lake Erie and exits to our northwest. As it exits, a cold front is pulled through.  Euro has a disturbance at the end of this front, and forms a 1008 low off the BM on Tuesday throwing back some snow showers Tues evening, but nothing accumulating.  This differs from the 12z run yesterday in that the front stalling is further north for the 12z run, and the 1004 low that forms is over MI and too weak to drag the cold front ove us.  The shortwave at the bottom of the front strengthens to 998 low and runs from Elmira through VT. 

0z gfs has the first front clear as above, but a 1012 low forms along the second front and goes to our NW, but brings the front briefly to our south on Sunday.  It clears out Monday then a 980 low bombs up through the great lakes on Tuesday bringing the front back as a warm front. 6z is similar, but a bit weaker on the main storm in the GL.  12z run doesn't get the front through all the way either, but puts a 988 low over buffalo. 

Major difference in GFS is that the trough goes negative vs Euro where the trough keeps going positive.  This is usually reversed, so don't know which to trust. 

 CMC 0z run supports the negative tilt and bomb the GFS has, but is further west.  It also has the feature that forms off the coast after frontal passage that the Euro has.   UKMET is too slow with system, but looks like it will go to the GL.   Nogaps has its focus on the kicker system, bringing a weaker low through upstate ny and sending the kicker to the mid atlantic

12-3 - Euro waffles, GFS comes and goes - see tale of two euros - one has it coming up the apps/coast and the other (12hr later run) is through the lakes.

 12z run from 12-2
0z run from 12-3

Euro on board with storm of moderate strength for us with the r/s line to our south in hr 240 (11th), but ensembles have it weaker and earlier.  CMC has  storm on the 9th, to our south, but warmer and with another following it to our west at the end of the run which looks to be an Apps runner.  GFS 6z brings a 1004 low up west of the Apps.  0z gfs has the cold air in sooner, with a weak storm going ots off NC on the 9th.

11-30 Possible issues with 12/10 - still 10 days out but Euro and CMC are onto it, GFS 0z is a day behind and 6z is missing it.  GFS had previously had the storm in 6 consecutive runs.

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