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Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Record Cold and Historic LES

November has been pretty darn cold .  Supertyphoon Nuri, with winds over 180mph, recurved around Nov 2, headed north and recurved again on the 5th/6th.  General rule is that recuving typhoon results in trough in the east.  Nuri didn't go quietly though, becoming an explosive 920mb low in the Northern Pacific and one of the strongest storms to enter the Bering sea in history.  Nuri did weaken right after reaching its peak, but meandered until the 13th until it dissipated over the Aleutians.  Typhoons pump the ridge in front of them (think counterclockwise circulation) bringing up warmer air from the south and disrupting the circulation around the arctic (ie polar vortex)   If a ridge is created, then a trough needs to develop, and a rather large trough did develop, moving over the US resulting in the PV breaking off and sliding over the US, bringing waves of record cold.

The set up for the 5-6 feet of snow in one day over Buffalo's southtowns was perfect.  Warmer lakes, a piece of the PV, winds SW able to pick up moisture over the entire Lake Erie.

   4 S CHEEKTOWAGA       65.0  1004 AM 11/19  ESTIMATED
   LANCASTER             63.0   944 AM 11/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   GARDENVILLE           60.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST SENECA           57.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 W WEST SENECA       51.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   ELMA                  51.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ORCHARD PARK          48.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WALES CENTER          48.0   946 AM 11/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 N HAMBURG           48.0   905 AM 11/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   4 SSE BUFFALO         45.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   2 SSW BLASDELL        44.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS

But don't believe that this is the end of global warming.  While record cold hits the Eastern 2/3 of the US, there is record warmth in Alaska, Greenland and Europe.

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