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Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Feb 7-10

2-9 Eeked out 4", barely. Snowed lightly for several days

2-7  NAM finally caving, GFS/Euro steady on a 3-6" snow event Monday, with total 4-8.  Nothing terribly heavy though. R/S line remains between DXR and NYC, but NAM and UK are trending south.  I like the NWS 4-6 call with winter storm watch.  Don't like the ice, though I see they are getting it from the SREF's which has a mostly ice scenario.  I'd look for that to shift to more snow as it catches up to the 12z NAM.

Light snow this morning, dusted ground.  I've held off on this one due to a huge spread in the models, with the NAM having almost nothing falling, with the waves going to our north.  GFS/Euro are south and producing qpf over a stretch of time, but not a lot in one segment.  However, NAM finally caved to moving more precip south.  Also moving south on the 12z run is the 850 line which still runs north of i84, but not by much.  If this is a trend, could be interesting. If it stays as is, NAM has a lot of ice.  NAM Snow map still has us in 1-3 inch range.  Also watching possible record cold temps for Presidents weekend - GFS had -29F for dxr Sat morning. Its backed down to -11 now, but also brings it to -12 on Monday 12z.  UKIE 12z run today keeps CT in the below 0 at 850 for the duration, but has pre lp bulk of precip to our north.

2-6 nam

2-7 0z nam

2-7 12z nam
GFS snow totals 9" is pink

2-5   Almost thinking to call this off.  Euro still holding onto it, but shifted pretty far north, enough to bring some freezing rain in.  GFS still snow, but NAM moves the frontal area so far north we get nothing. 

2-4  This will have to change since its really odd, but there is a prolonged light snow event from the 7th to the 10th.   Best to look at the printouts to describe - on the maps there is nothing quite strong, but a prolonged easterly fetch possibly causing this. The highest 6hr precip rate is .25 or 2-3 inches of snow.  GFS and Euro are similar on this.  UKMET has a weak LP slowly moving from WV to NC/SC up to hr 144.

Euro printout
GFS printout

The following show that the high pressure to our north brings the winds from the ENE for several days until a stronger LP is formed off shore.

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