Waiting..

12/19  We did have some snow flurries today....

12/14 - Euro again getting close, gfs not there.

12/11 - 0z euro coming close on the 19th.

So is GFS... 6z at least

12/5  0z GFS has some more stronger storms for the 17th and 19th. But sadly rain at this point.  Euro Control completely different picture.  6z GFS has them going to our west and very warm. 

12-17 0z gfs

12/19 0z gfs

12/4 - its been since the below run on 11/26 that a snow storm has shown up.  This one one the 6z gfs.  Hr 348, so its just eye candy for now, and not even much at that since temps are marginal.  The GFS at least is putting a mean trough in the CONUS, but mainly to our west.  Euro control less interesting.  Still the next 10 days should be warmer than normal and dry.


Storms are showing up on model runs, but there is no consistency between models, nor from one model run to the next.  Dec 2 (Euro ens) and Dec 8(12z GFS) are todays examples of that.

12z GFS for 12/8

0z Euro ens control for 12-2

This winter looks like...

11/20   ...a little warmer in the beginning, less snow with colder more normal temps in Feb/Mar and more snow.  Not expecting many 6+ storms, but we could get half the seasonal snow with one hit in Feb/Mar. Overall I'm thinking +.2 to .5 for temps and within 5" of normal for snow.

Based on looking at various outlooks by various weather agencies and other forecasters, my prediction is for a winter which will not be nearly as cold as the last few, closer to normal temps and slightly less than normal snow with a few ice storms.  Aside from reading a dozen or so other forecasts, you can't ignore the El Nino, which is by many accounts the second strongest since 1950, and even stronger in some regions than 1997. 

Another look at 3.4

From LA Times, Region 3.4

1997/98 was a very warm and snowless winter (5" in Central Park).  There are mets out there who will point out this is not a 1997 El Nino (the strongest), but you can't discount it as a whole.  Approx 3/4 of the "mets" I follow are calling for a warm start, cold end.  The other 1/4 are calling for persistent warmth. Why I buy the majority argument is that El Nino is forecast to crash pretty hard in the spring.  As the Pacific shifts towards neutral, the jet should change and shift back to a more normal look.  The key is how fast El Nino tops off (is it now?) and how fast it declines.

Predicted fall to neutral by summer

It could delay or peak a month late, which messes up just about everyones outlook. Both Atlantic and Pacific temps are warmer than normal, with the Atlantic looking like its transitioning out of a +AMO.  Warmer ocean temps lead to more moisture, so when winter pokes back at us, we are looking at a stronger subtropical jet and warmer Atlantic (for now) which would lead to stronger storms, heavier precip.  Hence the call for some potent storms later in the year.  The track of these storms would have to be worked out later though and its more likely than not they head to our west, resulting in either ice storms or front end snow, rain events.  Current storms are tracking to the lakes, which I expect to continue through December, but after that can't tell. 

Atlantic Temps = more moisture available

Pacific Temps = stronger storms in ST Jet

I'm also researching warm ocean temps and falling or rising heights and pressures as a result.  I would expect that as the difference in land v. sea temps expands, the affects of a warmer ocean increase.  If you're at the shore, particularly in the spring, you'll notice as the land warms, the rising air draws in the cooler ocean air creating a sea breeze.  The warmth draws in cold to replace it.  At night, the warmer ocean then draws in the air from the land, but its usually not as strong as the temp difference is less.  So does having near coastal water +2 to +3 warmer than normal cause air to be drawn to it from the cooler land.  Just a thought.

 Should throw in as a final point, that the latest (11/20) CFSv2 run for 850 temp anomalies as warmer in Jan, colder in Feb and Mar.  Not sure how I feel about that.

Feb 850 temp anomalies

March 850 temp anomalies

Opening day

11-22  Close, so close.  NMM had some snow forecast for Eastern CT.  But raw, cloudy and cold instead.  Nothing to blog about in the next ten days.

11/20 - close, but not seeing signs of it shifting back west. Less amped.  Wondering if this is a sign for the winter.

 

11/17 First threat of a snow storm for the NE this season showing on the Euro this morning, but keeps the accumulating snow to our N and W.  While the 1000-500 thickness looks good (see blue line on MSLP chart), the surface and 925mb temps are too warm for our area.  850's support snow, so there may be some in the air, particularly in heavier bursts, but otherwise should be liquid and non accumulating.  GFS has some snow as well on the 6z run, but its weaker overall with the secondary development shown on the Euro. CMC has a dry front come through.