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Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Feb 24-26

2-23

Ukie wins  - some front end snow today, .6" with 2:1 snow ratios - ie really wet.  Enough to cover the ground.  Rest of storm to pass well to our west.

2-19   Model mayhem continues....
Afternoon - two storm solution evolves, front snow?, second mix?

Ukie - way west
Euro with 2 storm solution that CMC had at 0z.  Bernie mentions he favors this and second one is bigger.




JMA also now has two storm solution




Morning
0z euro back west, right over us.  EPS really far west.  Some snow tonite, sunday night, tuesday then rain, perhaps ending as snow.

EPS

 GFS is ALL over the place - 0z run to our east, but rain. 6z over Cleveland, 12z two storms, one hits us, the other ots.
0z run gfs

6z gfs run

12z gfs first storm

12z gfs second storm
0z cmc is a two storm solution, both rain


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2-18   Afternoon - Euro shifts way east, still has 2-3 for this storm, brings .55qpf for monday morning mayehm

Euro 12z run

Euro 0z run
GFS moved from over us to offshore as well.
gfs 12z



gfs 0z
JMA went a little south
CMC caught up with the 0z runs
CMC
NAVGEM way out to sea.

UKIE is cut off over AL


Ensembles look good - close enough to warrant watching.  GFS ens has 2m temps near 0


GFS Ens

Euro ens



 Morning.  0z GFS and 6z GFS for comparison below.  0z Euro similar to 0z GFS.  I'll throw in CMC and NAVGEM too, just to demonstrate the only model runs that were remotely close were the 0z GFS and 0z Euro.  Looks like same situation as the past storm from their operationals.  The EPS and GEFS ensembles are more reasonable and up the coast. But rain/snow line is close.   Note clipper on Monday morning may bring a few inches per Euro, misses south on both GFS runs.

CMC
 
NAvgem

0z GFS

6z GFS



2-17   Afternoon

GFS remains wet and wild, really slowed down and has 850 temps to 10c.
Euro on the other hand went full blown bomb coastal, faster than before, but colder and all snow for DXR.  Has over a foot for our area, and that may be underdone

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z FEB17
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    TOTAL    500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON 12Z 22-FEB  -0.5    -1.2    1012      95      55    0.09     547     538   
MON 18Z 22-FEB   6.1    -2.2    1012      63      40    0.09     549     539   
TUE 00Z 23-FEB   2.9    -4.8    1016      71      15    0.09     551     538   
TUE 06Z 23-FEB   0.1    -5.0    1019      76      14    0.09     552     537   
TUE 12Z 23-FEB  -1.1    -4.1    1022      73      14    0.09     554     536   
TUE 18Z 23-FEB   4.3    -3.7    1021      47      20    0.09     555     538   
WED 00Z 24-FEB   1.6    -3.2    1019      62      97    0.09     555     540   
WED 06Z 24-FEB   0.5    -2.9    1015      89      98    0.15     554     542   
WED 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -1.3    1010      86     100    0.31     551     543   
WED 18Z 24-FEB   0.7    -1.1    1005      84      85    0.52     548     544   
THU 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6    -0.8     997      87     100    0.70     542     545   
THU 06Z 25-FEB  -3.1    -4.5     992      85      99    1.33     530     537   
THU 12Z 25-FEB  -4.3    -9.6     994      73      93    1.50     525     530   
THU 18Z 25-FEB  -1.7   -11.3     997      49      31    1.50     522     524   


JMA also showing coastal


Morning  Euro and GFS are toying with a major storm in this time frame.  It has been on multiple runs now.  Differences are that Euro captures the LP right over us, and spins it out, snow to zr.   GFS keeps it moving and is warmer -rain to snow.   Here is the text - its nasty. Note on Thursday the 850 temp is at .1 up from -1.2 and .58 has fallen.  Its likely that 8" could come before it changes to ice. 

ECMWF
                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                   TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                   (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

WED 06Z 24-FEB   0.2    -3.0    1022      75      90    0.08     557     539   
WED 12Z 24-FEB  -0.1    -2.2    1021      83      98    0.12     559     542   
WED 18Z 24-FEB  -0.3    -1.2    1018      84      99    0.31     559     545   
THU 00Z 25-FEB  -1.1     0.1    1012      86     100    0.58     559     549   
THU 06Z 25-FEB  -1.6     4.2    1008      85      81    0.28     557     551   
THU 12Z 25-FEB  -0.6     2.2    1006      86      20    0.06     552     547   
THU 18Z 25-FEB   1.5     0.1    1005      88       9    0.03     548     544 
GFS 6z
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            06Z FEB17   * - APPROXIMATED
                             2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                             TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                              (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 06Z 24-FEB   4.6     6.0    1006     100      98    0.24     558     553   
WED 12Z 24-FEB   3.3     5.4    1007      96      98    0.04     557     551   
WED 18Z 24-FEB   3.6     4.5    1006      94      98    0.11     556     551   
THU 00Z 25-FEB   3.2     5.2    1000      94      99    0.06     553     553   
THU 06Z 25-FEB   2.4     2.3     989      95      96    1.08     544     553   
THU 12Z 25-FEB   0.2     0.0     985      93      98    0.28     531     544   
THU 18Z 25-FEB  -1.1   -10.6     992      86      70    0.18     526     533  
CMC has a different look - it never develops a coastal, instead brings a northern stream system across on the 26th with all snow, but lighter amts.
JMA has two systems - coastal then the one the CMC has.  Its warmer with the High a little too far east and south for the cold air to stay, but still should be some front end snow.
So all long range models are on board with something-  just need to work out whether its inland, coastal or out to sea.  Don't think its a Great Lakes cutter but can't rule it out yet.

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