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Thursday, February 11, 2016

2-15 to 2-19

2-15  Morning low of -6.3 at 7am.  Was 6+ at 9 and 10 at 10.  Light snow/flurries.  Watching to see if this overproduces. Weak LP off VA and HP just NE of CC is keeping strong southerlies away for now. If these strenghten, watch out for ice.  Current HRRR has .25" of ice forecast.

2-14  morning low of -10.  At 11am its 2.

No real changes except the follow clipper is drying out.  The 0z Euro came east over NYC, and it seemed like there was some consensus, then 12z GFS went back to Pitt/Buf.  The run to run consistency just isn't there and its 2 days away. 0z Euro even toyed with the idea of spawning a coastal low.

No matter what fluctuations, a high pressure to our east brings southerlies which would scour the cold air.  What we need is a low to from offshore to keep the cold air entrenched, but also would allow for ice.  Though there is toying with that idea, its not seriously being considered.   Snowfall from the front end should be 1-3 with 1-1.5 inches of rain.  Warm front should have snow, once passed drizzle, perhaps brightening of skies, then really heavy rain with a cold front.

Not having much skin in this one, its been remarkable to watch.
2-13  morning low of 13 up to 21 by 10am despite arctic front passing, snow showers

The models are really messing around.  The GFS is weakening the low so much that it goes over us or just to our east, but still brings snow to rain.  NAM is over us.  Euro still to the west as it takes the trough negative earlier and winds up the storm earlier. CMC is similar to GFS. UKMET winds it up like the Euro and takes it to the west.

After that there is a weak clipper that is right behind it, which varies from a snow even to a non event.  Potential is there for a 1-3 inch event, which would cap off a crazy 72-96 hrs of weather where the potential low is -10 on Sunday, to a high of 50 on Tuesday and snow on Wed.

Right now I like the track of taking it up the coastal plain, rather than the spine of the Apps.  I still think its difficult to go from a -10 temp to a 50 temp without a major storm, though a 1040 high located to our ENE helps with that. Though I still could see this storm winding up earlier than even the Euro and going more over Pitt/Buf, but time is running out to see that drastic change on the models.

More on this later if it shifts more to snow, or shows over 2" on the front end, which its not now, but should be doing. Then again, we should have had more snow with the arctic front last night.  Perhaps due to it being at night, more stability in front of it even though there was a SW wind.

2-12  0.3 degrees this morning at 7:20

GFS bullseyes us with the low pressure on Tuesday evening. Warm air well in front is suspicious. 

 Euro shifted east, but is still west of the GFS, with the LP running PHL to ALB
Both have temps in the 50's during this event, which would be nice, but I think a little high
CMC runs it right over us.  JMA from 12z 2-11 runs it east of us but is also warm. NAVGEM just to our west, similar to GFS.  UKMET goes GA to ALB.  
Will continue to monitor, in case it shifts east or shows more of a front end snow.

2-11 As we start submitting to old man winter, polar front should bring some squalls for a dusting on the 12th/13th.  Then below 0 weather with highs in single digits should be in play Sat/Sun.  Then a storm forms in LA, swings through AL on Monday with warm air surging ahead.   Monday night should have snow, but all indications are an inland track of the storm.  This means a snow to rain event.  It is shocking to see how fast the cold leaves the area on Monday, almost unbelievable, to near 50 on Tuesday.  We would have to see some front end snow, but the high slides offshore bringing in SE winds, so at this point, its more of a 1-3 or 2-4 quick hit then a lull as it warms and rain.

At this point 12z GFS is east of 12z Euro, which is not unusual.  The jump west on the Euro from 0z (over us) to 12z (over State College to Buffalo) is a little dramatic, but I'm not going to be surprised if this moves further west on the GFS. GFS is jucier with the warm front, Euro pretty dry.  I believe the GFS on that.   NAVGEM rule in effect - it has the storm Harrisburg to Albany.  Watch for GFS to shift west.

Previous runs had a system trailing the one on the 15th/16th , which has disappeared from 12z runs.

Warms afterwards.

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