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Wednesday, January 27, 2016

One more storm? Mid Feb

2-2  Still differences in how the time period goes, but still active and with opportunities.  Here is the euro 12z snow map as an example.


vs CMC

JMA is on board
CMC ensembles a little earlier

2-1  There's something happening here...what it is ain't exactly clear...

GFS has been pretty set on bringing one up the coast around the 9th, along with a clipper in the lakes. It keeps the two separated for our area
Euro operational is more bullish on a phased system, but to our west.  It pulls so much warmth ahead that there is no front end snow, which is unusual.
EPS is weaker on this system, like the GFS, but has a follow up on the 10th.

GFS ens looks more like just a clipper, as does CMC ens.
CMC operational looks like the GFS, with a two part system with the one from the south moving over us.  Should be a snow/rain setup. 

1-30  Time frame is still interesting.  There is also a chance of a coastal forming post frontal passage on the 6th.

1-27  With the storm going off to the east, all is pretty quiet.  Northern branch storms need to be watched for changes, but most are pulling to the lakes, which is what I expected to happen. Problem is no cold air so no front end snow/ice.   This changes around the 3rd or so as a potent storm moves through the lakes and brings down a new air mass significantly colder.  There may be one or two clippers within that airmass, but no major storm until the 10-12th time frame, as shown below.

While I wouldn't take this solution as gospel, I mean its 372 hrs out (62 more runs of the GFS!), but it does show the potential and the pattern. 

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