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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Spring snows

4-4  An inch for Sunday morning and light snow today, maybe we'll get an inch.  Ground already covered.

3-31  Euro and GFS onto waking up to a coating of snow on Sunday.  Warming the wave coming through on Tuesday and drying.  Still chance for 1-3 on the grass.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z MAR30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.5    -7.3     996      88      80    0.17     518     521   
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.7    -9.5    1007      29      95    0.01     527     522   
MON18Z 04-APR   5.9    -3.0    1014      60      99    0.02     552     540   
TUE 00Z 05-APR   6.2     3.1    1009      76      82    0.00     551     544   
TUE 06Z 05-APR   1.8     0.1    1010      95      98    0.08     548     541   
TUE 12Z 05-APR  -1.1    -6.9    1015      78      59    0.12     543     532   
TUE 18Z 05-APR   1.8    -9.3    1019      49      80    0.01     540     525
   

Euro 0Z


At least the 0z GFS is on board with something.  6z is warmer like the CMC

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            00Z MAR31   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 03-APR   7.3    -0.5     995      76      86    0.07     531     535   
SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.7    -3.7     989      86      96    0.09     518     527   
SUN 12Z 03-APR  -3.5   -13.4    1000      78      88    0.14     514     514   
SUN 18Z 03-APR  -1.8   -15.0    1010      51      32    0.01     530     523
  
  
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.3    -3.4    1013      86      99    0.13     548     537   
TUE 00Z 05-APR   2.8     0.9    1008      99      99    0.26     547     540   
TUE 06Z 05-APR   1.0    -3.4    1008      95      46    0.02     541     535   


GFS 0z
CMC is steady with its forecast of brining the low over us from the NW, with snow turning to rain. 
JMA is further south
NAVGEM is pretty far north, which is a red flag for snow.

3-30  0z Euro with 9-12 inches most of ct.  But falling later on Tuesday now, so possibly much less accumulation.  0z GFS with .44qpf but mixed.  6z run with .06qpf, snow.  UKMET has low over VA.  CMC runs the low right over us, with light mix.

    

3-29  0z Euro was on board, 12z says southern slider.  Snow shower threat stronger for Sat/Sun.
0z gfs= light snow event; 6z has storm coming up from FL staying off the coast with a light snow event.  Getting those two together would be major.  12z GFS says hello to Euro solution of last night and yesterday, a 3-9 inches in New England. 18z GFS disappears altogether.


3-28  Snow showers on Sunday with most models.  Possible storm on Tues Morn.
Snow map for the 6th on the Euro - right now its the only one showing this.
And it comes from this minor set up with .81 qpf
and these temps


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