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Thursday, June 2, 2016

Gulf development first week of June

6-7 TS Colin peaked at 50mph before landfall in the big bend of FL around 11pm 6/6.  Pressure at landfall 1002.  Not very impressive circulation and winds may have been generous.  Winds were mainly to the SE and widespread out to 230 miles.  Winds picked up as it moved out along the SC/NC coasts, to 60mph and it lost its tropical characteristics.  NHC discontinued coverage at 5pm 6/7.

6-5  TS Colin has formed - looks pretty straightforward.   Fast moving, NE direction over N FL.  GFDL looks suspicious in its strength, considering its speed.  This is after it passes FL.   Otherwise, its a moderate TS to Cat one hurricane.




TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6-2  GFS and Euro onto gulf system developing, heading across FL on the 7th and out to sea.

 https://i.imgur.com/8T1Lkr5.png
Euro



GFS
NHC hasn't put any blobs out on the map for formation yet, but Beven has mentioned potential in his tropical outlook today.



6-1  Potential for Gulf development seen on GFS.   Euro conditions are ripe, but doesn't have anything substantial yet.

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