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Monday, December 26, 2016

12-29

12-27 morning
GFS moistened a little. Still plenty cold.  Looks like 3" - graphic is counting 18z and 0z as rain.


THU 12Z 29-DEC  -0.2    -3.4    1014      86      56    0.00     549     538   
THU 18Z 29-DEC   3.2    -2.5    1004      96      99    0.17     540     538   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.4    -5.2    1000      92      37    0.17     525     525   



NAM colder than Euro, moister than GFS



THU  1P 29-DEC   2.1    -5.2    1008      93      94    0.03     544     538   
THU  7P 29-DEC   0.5    -4.2    1000      98      91    0.33     532     532   
FRI  1A 30-DEC   0.0    -7.7     995      77      59    0.16     517     521  
 

Euro still trending colder, but 925 layer is still marginal at 18z


HU 18Z 29-DEC   3.7    -3.3    1006      92      98    0.06     545     540   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.5    -1.5     995      99      92    0.59     533     537   
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   1.2    -6.0     991      79      63    0.36     516     524   

Looking at the purple line as approx r/s line, but with the LP inside the BM, it may not be as simple.  It looks like a good thump right over us and HV at 72 hrs with a rate of an inch an hour.  



That results in this snow map.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
We ended up with a white Christmas here in the hollow, barely, but 85% of the ground was covered.


Looking on to 12-29...

GFS has a storm form late off the coast, brushing SNE with cold enough temps for all snow, just not a lot of it. Here are the 0z and 12z texts


0z GFS 12-26
THU 12Z 29-DEC   0.5    -1.5    1013      83      42    0.00     547     537   
THU 18Z 29-DEC   4.4    -2.1    1005      93      99    0.06     540     536   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   2.0    -3.6    1002      95      78    0.08     529     528   
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   0.0    -7.4    1000      92      87    0.01     520     520    
12z GFS
THU 12Z 29-DEC   0.0    -3.4    1014      86      69    0.00     548     536   
THU 18Z 29-DEC   3.6    -2.2    1005      93      99    0.12     539     535   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.1    -4.5    1001      94      41    0.09     526     525   
FRI 06Z 30-DEC  -0.7    -7.6    1000      86      30    0.00     520     520   


and pics



Euro on the other hand forms the storm a little earlier and bombs it.  More moisture comes into the area, but the 0z had it a tenth of a degree too warm.  The 12z run however, keeps it all snow, and heavy.


0z Euro
THU 12Z 29-DEC  -1.9    -4.8    1016      72      72    0.00     554     541   
THU 18Z 29-DEC   3.1    -3.0    1005      96     100    0.11     545     541   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.7     0.1     997      98      83    0.61     534     537   
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   0.2    -6.4     994      80      18    0.02     518     523 

Snow map

12z Euro
THU 18Z 29-DEC   2.9    -3.4    1005      96      99    0.10     544     539   
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.6    -1.3     995      99      98    0.67     532     536   
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   1.2    -6.5     993      79      30    0.10     518     524

CMC is in the middle, with it warmer and bombing over Maine.
NAVGEM out to sea
JMA on board


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