Wednesday, February 14, 2018

2-18

2-19  Ended up with 6" here.  Most areas in the PHL to BOS received between 4-6" with NE NJ getting a 9" report.  Ridgefield also reported 8" NWS Upton snow totals

Out of Mt Holly there was a report in Hunterdon Cty of 9", with many other reports in Morris, Warren and Northampton of 8".  Still the average would be around 6.

Areas of S NJ, LI, NYC received anywhere from 1-4", mixing was an issue on the island along the coasts. 

Overall pretty good call.


2-16 - no time today. I like 3-6 inches widespread PHL to BOS - mixing will make it interesting near the coast though.

2-15  Snow mounds on the property just about gone...will be overnight.

Pretty high confidence in a 3-6 inch snow here in N Fairfield Cty.  Really for most of CT.  Details as to whether its 3 or 6 still being ironed out.  Its fast moving, not too much qpf involved.

GFS is useless with this one.  Each run is something different.

Latest shows this for snow - the least of the models
Not to be outdone by the CMC and its snow trend, but at least its linear.
Icon is also showing less snow as the day progressed.
But at least it jives with its trend of bringing the low pressure flatter, more south
On the other hand is the NAM/Euro combo (ukmet too, but no maps) showing a bit stronger and further north.
And euro

NAVGEM back to normal


So there's really not much more to add here.  Systems are coming through a split stream, timing is everything.  All models showing snow for our area.


2-14 As the last post suggested, there is a snow threat for SNE south to VA for the 18th.

This is the basic setup - split stream coming together and heading east.  Now will the two vort maxes phase, line up or will the #2 speed up and kick #1 out.  Lately, the trailing northern stream energy has trended slower and deeper, so I'm aboard the storm wagon now.

Temps - surface temps aren't that great. Though the contrast is.  These temps cool in SNJ as the snow falls.  Not so  much in LI though.

But the 850 temps look great
As do 925.  
Leads to the following snow map
Thats all the euro.  UKIE is pretty far north 


as is NAVGEM which is a red flag

CMC is also on board.
as is icon which is also a little more north


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