Florence Day Three

9-7  Afternoon
Nothing really different.  NHC extended where it will cross 30n past 70W now.  Shear remains an obstacle for another 24-48 hrs.  There is nothing impeding it between that point and the coast.  We're still 6 days out, but a coastal hit seems 80% likely.  Area of concern remains the Carolinas.  But GA/NFL are remarkably still  in this, as is VA, NJ and Cape Cod.  After that perhaps Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. 

9-7 morning

Florence is beat down to a TS due to shear and a little dry air.  This was expected and accounted for.
Today we'll focus on tracks.

First, I'll compare the first time the NHC forecast the storm to pass 30N vs. their current forecast.

Three days ago, the forecast was to reach 30N at 56W.  Now its 70W.  That's 725 miles difference.

Tracks from the deterministic models.

Most alarming is that the NAVGEM went from Bermuda to EC landfall.  This makes all operational models hitting or nearing the coast.
6z Run of GFS